Yili shares (600887): Q4 performance exceeded expectations and hit 100 billion

Yili shares (600887): Q4 performance exceeded expectations and hit 100 billion

Yili’s annual report Q4 gross margin and profit growth exceeded market expectations, the goal of fair incentives was achieved, and internal cohesion was further strengthened.

Looking back on the past 18 years, Yili’s core single products and high-end products have developed rapidly. The channel-sinking market share advantage has been consolidated, and various indicators have maintained the “superior students” standard.

Looking forward to 19 years, the company’s revenue target + 13%, the performance target increased slightly. In 19 years, the correction impacted $ 100 billion. It is expected that the core product growth and scale expansion will continue.In the long run, it is the basis for future sustained growth.

We expect the EPS for 19-21 to be 1.


27, 1.

6, corresponding to the growth rate of 8%, 11%, 26%, given 19 years 25XPE, 29 yuan target price, “strongly recommended-A” rating.

The gross profit margin in Q4 drove the net profit to exceed expectations, and the achievement of the incentive goal 18 encouraged the company to end.

In 18 years, the company 杭州夜网论坛 achieved total operating income of 795.

5.3 billion yuan, an increase of 16.

89%, net profit 64.

520,000 yuan, an increase of 7.


Achieved the goal of revenue and profit growth planned at the beginning of the year, and successfully achieved the equity incentive target (15 years deduction of 1.

45X), internal cohesion will be further strengthened.

Q4 revenue increased by 16.

9%, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 30.

9%, non-net profit growth of 55%, income in line with market expectations slightly exceeded, gross profit margin and net profit growth significantly exceeded market expectations, mainly due to: 1) liquid milk slow sales promotion, 2) Q4 milk powder business increased 3) the Spring FestivalPromote product structure improvement.

18 Review: core single products, high-end products are developing rapidly, channel sinking market share advantage is consolidated, and various indicators maintain the “superior students” standard.

Reporting the budget, the structural upgrade countered the upward cost and the gross profit margin increased by zero.

5% to 38.

27%; sales expense ratio increased by 2% to 24.

85%, advertising expenses increased by 27.

500 million, 65% of the 4.2 billion increase in sales expenses.

Under the scale effect, the management expense ratio continued to fall by 1% to 3.


Attributable net interest rate weakened by 0.

8%, turnover increased, exceeding the average ROE of 24.


The communiqué was operating well, with Q4 sales receipts increasing by 20%.

3%, advance receipts increased slightly, which is expected to be related to the Spring Festival preparation period 10 days in advance.

19 Prospects: Clear target management + high cohesion, efficiently impacting 100 billion targets.

In 2019, the company plans to achieve a total operating income of 90 billion US dollars (a year-on-year increase of 13%) and a profit increase of 7.6 billion US dollars (a slight increase in ten years).

19 years is the key sprint year for the company to achieve its 100 billion revenue target in 2020. From the perspective of goal setting, the company may regard achieving the target scale as the core of its operations and maintain efficient operations through clear target management and effective incentive mechanisms.

The growth rate of the profit target is not set high, which is caused by the company’s natural profit release in the 19 good circumstances.

Liquid milk: Continue to harvest the market at room temperature and accelerate horse races at low temperatures.

The room temperature business still maintained steady growth and market harvesting. Grassroots surveys reported that stocks were opened annually, and sales were good, and inventory was flat compared with the same period last year.
In terms of profitability, given the modest upstream growth, we expect price promotions to slow down and save costs. Market infrastructure layout and brand building can be carried out to help the company sink channels and harvest the market.
The market structure of the low-temperature business is fragmented, and the company is still striving to increase its share. Under the higher growth target, the profitability is still not optimistic.

Milk powder: demand or growth, competition in the superimposed industry may be intensified, I hope Yili will make great efforts to make a breakthrough.

19 years is the key year for the industry. Demand (population) and the competition pattern are more complicated. However, domestic milk powder is expected to accelerate the breakthrough. I hope Yili will consolidate the local area and improve the quality of profits through scale effects.

Kang Yin: The team building is basically in place to welcome the first year of the diversified sector.

Channel feedback The team of the Kangyin Business Department is actively formed. This year, Changyi will be the fist product, and the team will be united by product growth. We look forward to breakthroughs in the diversified first year of the sector.

Investment suggestion: The industrial structure of buying 100 billion companies, with a 3-year compound yield of 15%, is strongly recommended.

We believe that the faster-than-expected profit growth over Q4 alone is more important than the achievement of equity target incentives. As a result of the overall momentum, the annual report shows the determination to achieve the 100 billion target, and the leading style is fully demonstrated.

In the period of 19-20, around the goal of the top five billion, the company has increased costs, strengthened the competitiveness of its products, and the shape of low temperature and milk powder is still unclear. Under the new business expansion environment, there may be uncertainties in the pace of profit release, but it is redundant. We believe that2021 is likely to enter the year of profit release due to the following reasons: 1) After an upward cycle of 18-20 years or three years, 20-21 years may enter a price increase year, or raw milk prices will turn down every year. From historical data,See, when the price of raw milk goes up in the last year or the price of raw milk goes down for the first year, the company’s profit often strengthens rapidly (such as 13-14 years); 2) After the gradual goal is reached, the costs gradually decrease gradually;Next, the company’s profit returned to 9 in 16 years.

About 4% is reasonable.

Assume 21 years to achieve more than 100 billion in revenue, 9.

5% income, given 25XPE for 21 years, 240 billion three-year target market value, corresponding to an annualized 15% compound income, with an annual increase of 2-3%, the yield space is still good.

We expect the EPS for 19-21 to be 1.


27, 1.

60, corresponding to a growth rate of 8%, 11%, 26%, given 19 years 25XPE, 29 yuan target price, “strongly recommended-A” rating.

Risk reminder: demand declines, cost increases, competition intensifies, new product promotion falls short of expectations