Crack Group (603203): Steady Growth in Q3 Revenue and R & D Efforts Increased

Crack Group (603203): Steady Growth in Q3 Revenue and R & D Efforts Increased

Event: The company announced three quarterly reports, and achieved operating income 3 in 2019Q1-3.

370,000 yuan, ten years +6.

40%.

Realize net profit attributable to mother 1.

25 trillion, ten years +11.

07%.

Q3 net profit grew steadily and cash flow remained stable.

The company achieved operating income in Q3 2019.

18 trillion, ten years +6.

76%, net profit attributable to mother 0.

47 trillion, +15 for ten years.

19%, we believe that due to the impact of downstream areas such as consumer electronics, the company’s Q3 single-quarter revenue increased slightly, and Q3’s net profit increased faster than Q2.

The net cash flow from the company’s operating activities in Q3 2019 was zero.

4.4 billion, +22 per year.

22%, -24.

At 14%, the company ‘s net cash flow from operating activities in the last six quarters has remained stable.

Q3 increased R & D investment and increased net profit margin.

The company’s gross profit margin in 2019Q3 was 54.

94%, previous / mom respectively -0.

79 / -0.

74pct, period expenses 14.

48%, +1 over / mo.

06 / -1.

45pct, of which research and development costs are 9.

03%, previous / mom +2 respectively.

91 / + 2.

11pct, we believe that the company continues to increase research and development expenditures for new products and make reserves for future sales.

2019Q1-3 company’s financial expenses are -1272.

830,000 yuan, +35 a year.

56%, mainly due to the increase in interest income from time deposits.

Net profit for the third quarter of 2019 was 39.

47%, previous / mom +2 respectively.

89 / + 1.

82 points.

The company’s operation is generally stable.

In 2019Q1-3, the company received zero advance funds.

2.1 billion, -4 from the previous quarter.

55%; accounts receivable is 0.7.4 billion, unchanged from the previous month; inventory is zero.

6.6 billion, -5.

71%.

In our opinion, on the whole, these three indicators have remained unchanged from the previous month, reflecting the overall stability 重庆耍耍网 of the company’s order, delivery, and return operations.

5G brings new downstream growth points and the company is highly competitive.

Looking ahead to next year, we believe that 5G is expected to bring new downstream growth points. The company’s reserve of laser soldering equipment and selective wave soldering and other equipment and technologies are expected to improve the company’s competitiveness in the field of 5G communications and expand the development of the production capacity., The company’s performance is expected to re-enter the stage of rapid growth.

Profit forecast and estimation.

We expect the company’s net profit attributable to its parent to be 1 in 2019-2021.

77/2.

19/2.

6.6 billion yuan, with an EPS of 1.

13/1.

39/1.

69 yuan, with reference to comparable company estimates, given 23-27 times PE in 2019, the corresponding reasonable value range is 25.

99-30.

51 yuan, maintaining the “primary market” rating.

risk warning.

Electronics manufacturing investment fluctuated greatly; the company’s new product launch exceeded expectations; the macro economy fluctuated significantly.

Weiming Environmental (603568): 2019 operating data highlights the quality of new projects

Weiming Environmental (603568): 2019 operating data highlights the quality of new projects

Event: The company released 2019Q4 operating data: a total of 50,561 power generations were completed.

210,000 kWh and 41,806 on-line electricity.

160,000 degrees, the average on-grid price is 0.

628 yuan / degree, the storage volume of garbage is 137.

37 for the first time (including domestic, kitchen and other garbage, of which 131 domestic garbage storage).

66 inches).

For the whole of 2019, a total of 187,120 gradual power generations were completed.

520,000 kWh, accumulative online power of 153,380.

99 million degrees, the average on-grid price is 0.

635 yuan / degree, gradually completed the settled electricity of 138,008.

420,000 degrees, 527 of progressive garbage storage.

44 (including domestic and kitchen wastes, of which 507 are domestic garbage storages).

26 inches).

Investment Summary: Analysis of the increase of 1: 19Q4 tons of grid-connected electricity far exceeds that of the industry, indicating that the new project has excellent profit quality.

Tons of on-grid electricity directly affect the project’s electricity sales revenue (accounting for about 70% of total revenue), which is an important indicator of project profitability.

According to operating data calculations, the company’s ton-on-grid electricity generation (only domestic garbage) variables in 2019 are 302 degrees, and in 2017 and 2018, the values were 302 degrees and 304 degrees; 19Q4 was 318 degrees, an increase of 1.
.

9 pct; In the province in 2019, the on-grid electricity capacity outside the province was 310 degrees, 267 degrees, in the fourth quarter of 2019 in the province, outside the province were 325 degrees, 286 degrees.

The average Internet access rate in 2019 is 82%, which is close to previous years.

Analysis 2: The scale of new signings in 2019 is the top two, and the progress of projects in and outside the province is in line with expectations.

The company signed a new waste-to-energy production capacity in 20191.

05Daily / day, ahead of A-share comparable companies. In the future, with mature operation capabilities and excellent cost control capabilities, it will benefit from mid-to-long-term planning and county-level project release in the Midwest, and the growth rate will still surpass the industry.

The company has a strong ability to control the progress of each project in and out of the province.

375 inches / day, 1,000 tons / day of camphor tree under construction, 750 tons / day of Linhai Phase II have been connected to the grid, revenue can be confirmed in 2020Q1, 500 tons / day of Yuhuan Phase II, and 600 tons / day of Longquan are expected to be connected to 2020Q1A total of about 0 will be put into production in 2020.

8 北京桑拿洗浴保健 days / day.

Analysis 3: It is expected that the company’s revenue will exceed 2 billion in 2019, and the contribution of waste power generation and equipment sales will be large.

According to business data, in 2019, the domestic garbage storage volume was 507, the on-line electricity capacity was 302 kWh, the kitchen garbage storage volume was 20, and the average on-grid electricity price was 0.

636 yuan / degree, etc., can roughly increase the company’s consolidated operating income of about 1.3 billion, the equipment contribution accounts for about half of the operation, and other income comes from leakage, cleaning and transportation, restaurant operations, etc.

Investment suggestion: We are optimistic about the company as a private leader, high profitability of existing projects, excellent cash flow ability to ensure efficient expansion, cost control and refined operation to build county-level market barriers, and future equipment sales.

It is expected that the company will achieve net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2021.

8, 13.

4, 17.

80,000 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 26x, 19x, 14x, the existing investment value, continue to strongly recommend.

Risk reminder: The construction progress of new projects in different places is less than expected; the national compensation policy for waste power generation risks.

Construction Machinery (600984): Leasing business grows rapidly, profitability increases significantly

Construction Machinery (600984): Leasing business grows rapidly, profitability increases significantly

The company released the third quarter report for 2019, and achieved operating income of 22 in the first three quarters.

880,000 yuan, an increase of 47 in ten years.

07%, net profit attributable to mothers3.

82 million, an increase of 227 per year.

89%.

The substantial increase in the revenue of the subsidiary Pangyuan’s leasing business has led to an increase in the company’s profitability. The reasons for the substantial increase in the company’s performance include: (1) The rapid expansion of the revenue of the subsidiary’s Pangyuan leasing business, which has continued to increase from the beginning of downstream land construction.According to the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics, the growth rate of newly started real estate in January 9th, 2019 was 8.

60%, continued to maintain a high growth rate, the new real estate starts to increase driving demand for tower cranes, according to the data released by Pangyuan’s official website, the company’s average occupancy rate remained at 77.

8%, the new unit price index maintained above 1500 points; (2) the tower crane leasing business achieved a trend of both volume and price, driving the company’s rapid repair of profitability.

The company’s gross profit margin in Q3 reached 44.

87%, net interest rate reached 21.

80%, the highest level of the company in the past 3 years.

Continue to increase equipment purchases, and future prefabricated construction brings structural opportunities to the company According to the company’s pre-announcement announcement, the company’s equipment purchases increased by about 74上海夜网论坛% in the first three quarters of 2019, and continuous equipment purchases brought a lot of operationalAssets, the company follows the national policy to promote the development of prefabricated buildings, and reduces the proportion of small tower cranes by increasing the number of large and medium tower cranes.

  According to the company’s official website data, the company’s medium and large-scale tower crane output value has accounted for more than 30% of the total output value.

The medium and large tower crane rental market is more concentrated than the small tower crane market. The rental rate and competitive structure are better than the small tower crane field, which will effectively improve the company’s profitability.

  Investment suggestion: Regardless of this non-public offering, we expect the company’s EPS in 19-21 to be 0.

63/1.

09/1.

22 yuan / share, corresponding to the latest sustainable PE estimate of 16x / 10x / 9x.

The company benefits from the opportunities brought by prefabricated buildings in the future. The company’s growth path is clearer than the upstream OEMs, and the cycle conversion is smaller. We give a certain premium. At the same time, the company’s 19-year performance is still dragged down by the traditional business.The 20-year performance is evaluated, and the company is given a PE evaluation of 13x for 20 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 14.

17 yuan / share, continue to give a “buy” rating.

  Risk warning: Weak downstream demand leads to a decline in rental rate; Tiancheng Machinery’s operation is less than expected; construction machinery operation is less than expected; goodwill impairment risk; intensified competition in the industry has brought down rental prices.

Ren Zeping: Reducing interest rates to interpret preliminary reforms and improve LPR formation mechanism

Ren Zeping: “Reducing interest rates” to interpret preliminary reforms and improve LPR formation mechanism

Here comes the “rate cut”!

-Understanding the source of the gradual reform and perfection of the LPR formation mechanism: Zeping Macro Wenwen University Research Institute Ren Zefang Siyuan Liang Yuan Incident On August 16, the National People’s Congress proposed to reform and improve the pricing mechanism of the loan market price reduction.

On the morning of August 17, the People’s Bank of China announced that on August 20, a new LPR (loan market quoted interest rate) formation mechanism will be released for the first time to promote the reduction of real economy financing costs.

  Interpretation 1, core point: marketization, reform-type interest rate cuts (1) Economic and financial data have all fallen back, and we are forward-looking and clearly put forward “it is time to cut interest rates!

“We are in” It’s time to cut interest rates! ”
!!

“Comprehensive Interpretation of July Economic and Financial Data” proposes that the current economic and financial data has come down in an all-round way and prices have deflated. It is time to cut interest rates.

The downward pressure on the economy has increased, and the tide of global interest rates has been reduced. The 730 Politburo meeting announced that monetary policy has returned to easing, and the exchange rate broke “7”. The core CPI has remained stable.

  In July, the data on social financing, credit, and M2 dropped. The wide-currency to wide-credit policy was less effective, which led to a decline in corporate real yields, narrowing of liquidity distribution channels, and low asset prices. It was difficult to overcome the effects of mortgage loans.

Social finance leading the real economy and investment means that the downward pressure on the economy in the second half to the first half of next year will be cracked.

Troika’s overall profits, sluggish exports, sluggish investment, and consumer spending.

  (II) The reform of the LPR formation mechanism introduced on weekends and weekends is actually a “market-oriented, reform-type rate cut” measure, which guides the reduction of bank loan interest rates, bond interest rates, and corporate real interest rates through open and open market policy interest rates-give more brave reformersSome applause!

  On August 17, a gradual announcement was issued, in order to deepen the interest rate marketization reform, improve the efficiency of interest rate reduction, and promote the reduction of the financing cost of the real economy. It was decided to reform and improve the formation of the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) formation mechanism.

There are four major changes in this reform: 1) The LPR quotation method is changed from the reference benchmark interest rate to the reference open market operation rate, which is based on the medium-term borrowing facility (MLF);Provide reference for the interest rate pricing of long-term loans such as housing mortgage loans; 3) The quotation bank adds city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, foreign exchange banks and private banks in all aspects, and includes 18 from 10 national banks; 4)The frequency of quotations is reduced to once a month.

  After the reform, the LPR interest rate will be formed by 18 banks based on the MLF operating interest rate, based on factors such as the bank’s own capital cost, market supply and demand, and risk premium.

The minimum requirement is that other banks should mainly use the LPR interest rate in newly issued loans, and use the LPR interest rate as the pricing benchmark in floating-rate loan contracts, so as to bring the market interest rate into line with the loan interest rate.

  (3) After the reform of the LPR formation mechanism, the interest rate reduction mechanism in the next few years will be significantly different from the past, and the MLF operation interest rate will be reduced by lowering the benchmark interest rate.

  After the forthcoming reform, future interest rate cuts will be reduced from the official benchmark interest rate in the past, to lowering the open market operation rate to guide bond interest rates, the loan interest rate and the actual interest rate downlink, and gradually approaching the Anglo-American interest rate channel replacement model, and the interest rate efficiency will be significant.Focus on improving.
  The current MLF interest rate has remained at 3 since April 2018.

At the level of 3%, in the context of the overall decline in economic and financial data of developing countries, deflation in prices, and increased downward pressure on the economy in the second half of the year, it is the general trend to reduce MLF operating rates in the future.

  (4) The reform of the reform is to align the loan interest rate with the market interest rate, and to facilitate the replacement of monetary policy.

  The current domestic monetary policy interest rates and channels are not smooth, policy rates, interbank market rates, exchange market rates, loan rates, and non-standard rates are all split. Especially because of the existence of benchmark deposit and loan rates, it is difficult to replace the wide monetary policy toThe interest rate of the real economy financing that is most relevant to the financing of real enterprises.

The LPR mechanism reform introduced at least provides a new market-based pricing benchmark for loan interest rate pricing, and promotes the direct linking of various bank loan interest rates to policy interest rates, in order to promote market-oriented interest rate reform, evacuate interest rate channels, and reduce the financing costs of physical enterprises.It is positive.

  (5) In addition to “expensive financing”, the current problem of “difficult financing” is prominent: liquidity segmentation and discrimination in financing status are important reasons for the current poor financing of physical enterprises, which need to be solved through reforms and marketization.

  At present, the problem of the stratification of liquidity between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises is severe. As a result of the wide monetary policy, the liquidity of private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises is still tight. The proportion and growth rate of loans to private enterprises have declined significantly.And it is expanding.

The reason is to expand the supplement of macro policies. The good intentions of the policies have changed in actual effect, hurting private enterprises and SMEs by mistake. Gradually, frictions and escalations, and our private enterprises are the main foreign exchange earners in China, and exports have the greatest impact.
  At present, the credit resources of private enterprise mergers are completely mismatched with the economic contribution, and the increasing downward pressure on the economy and the policy overlap have further exacerbated discrimination in financing status and the problem of liquidity segmentation.

The “456789” of private enterprises in the national economy, that is, private enterprises have contributed more than 50% of the income with about 40% of bank loans, more than 60% of GDP, more than 70% of technological innovation achievements, and more than 80% of cities and towns.Employment, the number of enterprises above 90%.

The financing prospects of long-term private enterprises have deteriorated, and the proportion and growth rate of loans have declined significantly.

From 2013 to 2016, the proportion of loans to private enterprises increased from 45.

2% continued to drop to 39.

0%; In the second half of 2018, the government strongly supported the financing of private and small and micro enterprises, and the proportion of private enterprise loans rose to 40 again.

7%.

The temporary growth rate of bank loan surplus of small and micro enterprises has been rapidly replaced since September 2017, from 15.

66% dropped to 8.

94%; With strong policy support, loans for small and micro enterprises rose to 9 in half a year in early 2019.

56%.

  (6) In the context of the high risk of credit risks for SMEs, banks may be more cautious about borrowing and prudent loans, exacerbating the difficulty of financing.
  Reasonable loan pricing = capital cost + business cost + reasonable profit + risk premium. It is a composite price based on actual loan business. It aims to guide the change in loan interest rates by changing the LPR formation mechanism, pushing down loan pricing, and actually squeezing the risk premium space.
With the increasing downward pressure on the economy, banks’ problem of rising credit risk for SMEs has increased. Once the risk premium of SME customers corresponding to small and medium banks is insufficient to cover poor coverage, it will gradually increase the substitution that affects bank credit.In order to form a vicious circle of credit contraction and business deterioration.

  (7) In July, the PPI turned negative after a lapse of three years, corporate profits decreased, real interest rates rose, and the balance sheet deteriorated, which may further reduce the bank’s credit placement target. We must be alert to “deflation and deleveraging”.

  We proposed in “China’s Leverage Cycle Study: Theory, Status Quo, and Prospects” that good deleveraging is a mild and deleveraging that keeps the economy growing at a moderate rate, with income growing faster than debt, and effectively enhancing debt repayment capabilities.

It is necessary to prevent the reduction in income growth brought about by deflation and deleveraging, the continued decline in the ability to repay debt, and fall into the cycle of debt deflation.

The current PPI has turned negative in 3 years, corporate real interest rates have risen, earnings have increased, and the balance sheet has deteriorated. Bank lending expectations may be further reduced in the future. We must be alert to the economy’s entry into deflation and deleveraging.

  (8) For this perfect reform of the LPR formation mechanism, a market-oriented reform of interest rate reduction should be affirmed, but at the same time, we must also look at the limitations of its effects and the deep-seated contradictions in the economic and financial fields to prevent thunder and rain., More flowers and less business benefits.

  In the face of complex and severe internal and external indicators, the future reform efforts can be greater, the pace can be faster, and a variety of methods are used to carry out reforms.

Monetary policy should be dominated by me, subject to domestic economic indicators and the overall situation of reform and development. The current economic and financial data have declined comprehensively. In the second half of the year, the economy will take the next step. PPI has turned negative and deflation, and interest rates have been reduced in various overseas regions.

In the future, it is necessary to increase the directional accuracy reduction, supplemented by structural monetary policy tools such as TMLF, MLF, reloan and rediscount, to alleviate corporate financing difficulties and solve the problem of liquidity layering.

At the same time, we will accelerate the reduction of policy rates such as OMO and MLF to guide the decline in loan interest rates, bond interest rates and corporate real interest rates.

Grasp the pace and intensity of deleveraging so that the economy maintains a moderate degree of income growth faster than the rate of debt growth, effectively enhancing the ability to pay debts.

  Continue to increase the lateral structural reform of financial supply, build a multi-level capital market, vigorously develop PE, venture capital, and equity private equity funds to effectively match risks and returns, reduce dependence on bank credit, and support the adoption of high-risk preferences.Venture capital to support new economy financing.

  Promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and establish a new housing-oriented housing system and long-term mechanism.

At present, it is usually necessary to prevent the release of currency to stimulate the real estate bubble, or to prevent major financial risks caused by active piercing. The mature country seeks time for space.

  The most fundamental thing is to expand reform and opening up, liberalize market access, cultivate new economic growth points, restore entrepreneurs’ confidence, and motivate local governments and entrepreneurs.

  Second, this time it is market-oriented and reform-type “rate reduction”: New mechanism (1) LPR’s predecessor, LPR, is the basic interest rate for mortgage loans, which means that financial institutions can choose the highest-quality loan rates implemented by customers, and other loan rates can be based on borrowingThe credit situation of a person is determined by considering the factors such as mortgage, term, interest rate floating method and type, based on the loan base interest rate.

The official LPR only announces the one-year loan base interest rate, which is calculated daily by 10 national commercial banks, and is comprehensively calculated. Since November 2015, it has basically remained at 4.

3% level.

  (II) New LPR mechanism: Pricing is linked to MLF to achieve a “rate cut” in a reformed manner. The new LPR price is determined by each quoting bank based on the average quoted price plus the MLF interest rate.

“Each offer will be made before 09:00 on the 20th of each month (extended on holidays).

The 05 scores are in steps, and the quotations are submitted to the National Interbank Funding Center. The National Interbank Funding Center calculates the average value after removing the highest and lowest quotes to 0.

LPR is calculated by rounding off the nearest multiple of 05%.

“The constant LPR ratio has significant changes in the quotation method, variety duration, reference range, and quotation frequency: 1. The quotation method is formed by changing the reference benchmark interest rate and adding points in accordance with the open market operating interest rate. The open market interest rate mainly refers to MLF.

MLF reflects the average marginal capital cost of a bank. The margin of increase is determined by each bank, mainly the cost of capital, market supply and demand, and risk premium.

The new method of linking MLF with loan interest rates can drive down the interest rate of loans through the downfall of MLF in the future, which is a new way of “rate reduction.”

The overall downward rate of the previous market interest rate has converged. After the LPR formation mechanism is perfected, it will reflect more on the decline in market interest rates, transform, and open channels for policy rates to directly affect loan interest rates, helping to reduce the actual financing cost of enterprises.

  2. Increase the maturity of more than 5 years to provide reference for the interest rate pricing of long-term loans such as bank supplementary housing mortgage loans.

Rich LPR varieties and expanded types are more conducive to guiding the adjustment of loan interest rates of various terms and types, and gradually completing the loan pricing transition to the “LPR + point” mechanism.

  3. The quotation bank has increased the scope of city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, foreign banks and private banks on the basis of national banks.

On the basis of the 10 national banks in the country, two city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, foreign banks and private banks were each added to expand to 18.

  4. The quotation frequency is reduced to once a month to increase the attention of the quotation bank.

Fundamental daily quotes are too verbose, and there may be quoted banks that do not estimate the impact of market changes.

  In addition, each year in the announcement, banks are required to use the loan market quoted interest rate as the basis for pricing in newly issued loans, and use the loan market quoted interest rate as the basis for pricing in floating-rate loan contracts.Market-based pricing guides the market-based pricing of loan interest rates for other commercial banks.

  In the future, there will be equivalent departments, which will comprehensively adopt a variety of measures to effectively reduce the company’s comprehensive financing costs, including 1) increasing credit interest rates and expenses to be open and transparent, 2) strengthening positive incentives and assessments, and strengtheningCredit support from credit companies, 3) Strengthen multi-department communication and coordination, form a policy synergy, and take multiple measures to promote the reduction of corporate financing related inputs and other channel costs.

  (3) The MLF interest rate may be reduced from April 17, 2018 to the convenience of borrowing during the transition period. After raising the MLF operation rate by 5bp, the current MLF operation rate remains at 3.

3% level.

In the end, the main objective of the LPR formation mechanism is to increase the marketization of LPR, play a good role of LPR in guiding the lending rate, promote the reduction of the “two tracks in one track” of interest rates, increase the productivity of interest rates, and reduce the financing cost of the real economy.

From this perspective, it is necessary to pay attention to the latest LPR announcement level and increase range in the short term. In the long term, the current economic and financial data has fallen comprehensively, core CPI has stabilized, PPI has turned negative and deflation, and the Fed and other overseas countries have cut interest rates widely.The MLF operating rate is the general trend.
  (4) Future interest rate cuts will be significantly different from the past. After the first reform of interest rate efficiency, future interest rate cuts will decrease from the official benchmark interest rate in the past, to guide the actual interest rate downward through open market operation rates, and gradually approach the US interest rate channel.Nominal mode.
The Federal Reserve ‘s monetary policy operation targets the federal funds rate as an incremental target, and through open market operations, it moves closer to the federal funds target rate through the interbank deposit rate.
The US deposit interest rate is directly anchored to the federal funds rate. In terms of loan interest rates, about 20% of loans in large banks use LPR pricing. Nearly 60% of small and medium-sized banks use LPR. Others use LIBOR and federal fund rates.Highly related to the federal funds rate can form a direct replacement for deposit and loan rates.

  Based on US experience, the productivity of the constant interest rate channel will be higher.

Under the compensation mechanism based on the federal funds rate in the United States, the correlation of various ratios is replaced. In its monetary policy replacement, interest rates can effectively replace short-term, medium- and long-term interest rates as intermediate targets.

99, the correlation for rising long-term interest rates is as high as 0.

86. Effectively reduce the financing cost of the real economy.

  Third, the current average budget interest rate channel is split, and the interest rates of each part are fragmented. It is difficult to replace market interest rates with the loan interest rate indicator channels that are most relevant to real economy financing. There are roughly three types of exchange rate changes within the scope of exchange rate changes.Affecting the money market interest rate and thus the financing cost of the bond market; 2) After the money market interest rate is reduced, the cost of absorbing resistance of the banking financial institutions in the money market is reduced, which affects the debt-side interest rate. On the basis of guaranteeing the interest margin, the loan interest rateAdjustments occurred; 3) Loose monetary policy, supplemented by loose financial supervision and financial product innovation, together affected non-standard financing costs.

With DR007 and R007 as potential policy target interest rates, we can find that the nominal interbank market, bond market, loans and non-standard market interest rate yields have significant wear and tear.

Except for the policy interest rate, it is more efficient for the inter-bank market income, and for the exchange market, loans and non-standard conversion efficiency are gradually decreasing.

  At present, interest rate loans account for 68% of the social financing stock, so the exchange rate efficiency of interest rates in the credit market is the most important factor in determining the channel for adjusting interest rates in monetary policy.

Under the broad monetary policy of the United Nations, the decline in the loan interest rate is much smaller than the money market interest rate, so the three-month Shibor quarterly ceiling has been raised from the March 2018 high of 4.

7% interest rate 2.

9%, but the general loan interest rate has a limited decline. At the end of June 2019, it was even increased by 3bp to 5 compared with the end of 2018.

94%.

  Investigate the reasons: (1) The policy rate reduces the wear and tear on the bond market interest rate, mainly due to the artificial division of the exchange market and the interbank market. Due to the mutual supervision and entry barriers that can be different, the capital risk is higher in the exchange market than in banks.In the actual market, the exchange market interest rate level and the rate of change are significantly higher than the interbank market in actual operation, which causes wear and tear on the interest rate conversion rate.

In addition, the long-term bond market still has problems such as insufficient liquidity, financial derivative product substitution, etc., which weakens the conversion efficiency.

  (2) The policy interest rate wants to reduce the loan interest rate, mainly because there are two major silting points in the process. The first is the reduction of the deposit interest rate, which causes the reduction of the money market interest rate and the deposit market interest rate to be blocked. This is highly related to the residents’ strong saving habits.Relatedly, deposits are more stable funds for banks, so whether from the regulatory 淡水桑拿网 indicators or the bank’s own assessments, they can complement deposits. Therefore, the realization of a non-arbitrary equilibrium between deposit interest rates and money market rates requires a long process;Two-sector decision-making mechanism “, where market interest rates and benchmark interest rates co-exist, loan pricing is highly dependent on benchmark interest rates, money market interest rates, and credit market interest rates are split, and the bank’s internal fund transfer pricing system is not yet complete, and it is not possible to achieve changes in interest rates on the debt endEffective response.

The impact of the compression of the benchmark interest rate and deposits deposited in the loan market on the bank’s asset-liability end to changes in the market interest rate is not significant, and the slenderness 杭州夜网论坛 of the bank’s liability-end cost to the asset-end interest rate is compensated.

  Fourth, the reform of the LPR formation mechanism promotes the alignment of the loan interest rate with the open market operation interest rate, unblocks the conversion of the policy interest rate to the loan interest rate, and achieves the wide-currency to wide-credit interest rate issuance. The LPR reform is an enhanced monetary policy operation tool by increasing interest rates.The speed of application, unblocking the channel of interest rate subsidies, has multiple substantive effects: 1) Avoid excessive monetary policy easing signals caused by interest rate cuts, which is consistent with the principle of preventing flooding, and at the same time open up the downward space for loan interest rates.

  2) Expand the bargaining power of enterprises with new “anchor” pricing.

Under traditional credit pricing habits, the benchmark interest rate is the “anchor” for banks to bargain with customers. Under the new “anchor”, when there is insufficient credit demand, it will inevitably expand the bargaining power of enterprises and further improve physical financing.

  3) In the long run, it is an important step in the marketization of interest rates.

The current rate of return still follows the benchmark interest rate pricing, and once the account deposit interest rate is liberalized, it may hinder the stability of the liability end of commercial banks. From the international experience, the liberalization of deposit interest rates requires a gradual process.It’s not easy overnight.

In this context, it is the first to promote the marketization of loan interest rates, which can effectively form a pricing method to connect with the bank’s marginal debt cost, make adjustments more flexible, increase bank initiative, and promote the simultaneous linkage of physical financing costs and capital costs.Go to Kuan Credit again.

International experience shows that LPR is usually a transitional system for loan interest rates from official supervision to full marketization. In the quarterly “Monetary Policy Implementation Report”, the United States, Japan, India and other countries have established similar LPR quotation mechanisms.

  V. In addition to the expensive financing problem, the current difficult financing problem is prominent: the liquidity classification of physical enterprises, the discrimination of financing status is an important reason for the inaccessibility of liquidity, and the liquidity stratification has led to the wide monetary policy.Tension.
The financing prospects of long-term private enterprises have deteriorated, and the proportion and growth rate of loans have declined significantly.

From 2013 to 2016, the proportion of loans to private enterprises increased from 45.

2% continued to drop to 39.

0%; In the second half of 2018, the government strongly supported the financing of private and small and micro enterprises, and the proportion of private enterprise loans rose to 40 again.

7%.

The temporary growth rate of bank loan surplus of small and micro enterprises has been rapidly replaced since September 2017, from 15.

66% dropped to 8.

94%; With strong policy support, loans for small and micro enterprises rose to 9 in half a year in early 2019.

56% of discrimination in financing status has intensified, and the credit spread of private enterprises far exceeds that of central and local state-owned enterprises, and the disparity in disparity is increasing.

At present, the credit spread of private enterprises issuing bonds is as high as 3.

The three averages are significantly higher than 0 for central and local SOEs.

5 and 1.

0 averages.

Especially since the financial deleveraging in the fourth quarter of 2016, overall financing is expected to tighten, with private companies bearing the brunt of it, and credit spreads rising by up to 2%.
2 digits, while central and local SOEs rose by only 1.
3 and 1.

6 averages.

  The current problem of the liquidity stratification of small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises is mainly due to two reasons: First, due to the overlap and resonance of macroeconomic policies, the operating pressures of private and SMEs have been exacerbated.

The original intentions of the policies are all good, and the general direction is also correct. However, due to implementation deviations or inadequate considerations, some policy effects have changed, including: 1) Shutdown of production capacity and a large number of private SMEs shut down and transfer, and profitsInterest rates; 2) Environmental protection and limited production and rising operating costs of private enterprises; 3) Financial deleveraging and the deterioration of the financing environment for private enterprises; 4) Competition for social security strengthened collection and the actual tax burden of private enterprises has increased.

  The second is the friction upgrade impacting export enterprises.

Since March 2018, friction has continued to escalate, and it has been included in the 2018 global economic cycle. With weak external demand, China’s export growth rate has been rapidly replaced.

Private enterprises are the main force in China’s export earning foreign exchange, and exports are expected to have the greatest impact.

  The credit resources incorporated by private enterprises currently do not match the economic contribution.

The “456789” of private enterprises in the national economy, that is, private enterprises have contributed more than 50% of the income with about 40% of bank loans, more than 60% of GDP, more than 70% of technological innovation achievements, and more than 80% of urban laborEmployment, the number of companies above 90%.

At the same time, Baoshang Bank was taken over and broke the banking industry’s recent cash flow, leading to a reduction in market risk and a breakdown of the liquidity of the banking system. Small and medium-sized banks contracted. In June 2019, the growth rate of total assets of city commercial banks and rural commercial banks improved.Sexual release channels have been substantially narrowed, gradually increasing the current internal liquidity stratification problem.

  6. Under the background of high credit risk for SMEs, banks may further exacerbate the issue of prudent loans and exacerbate the problem of “financing difficulties.” Lowering interest rates to market interest rates will make it difficult to change the status of SME credit risks.

Since 2018, the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks, especially small and medium-sized commercial banks, has continued to rise. At present, the credit risk of small and medium-sized customers of small and medium-sized banks continues, and there is little collateral. It is difficult for banks to form effective demand for risk-reward matching.Commercial banks ‘prudent lending sentiment has not been effectively alleviated, and banks’ lending intentions are not strong.

From the data point of view, the current loan structure has continued to deteriorate, the proportion of long-term loans has declined, the proportion of short-term loans has increased, the proportion of corporate loans has fallen, the proportion of residential loans has increased slightly, and the proportion of non-bank loans has increased.

  Reasonable loan pricing = capital cost + business cost + reasonable profit + risk premium. It is a composite price based on the loan business. The reform is based on the change of the LPR formation mechanism to guide the change in loan interest rates, promote the downward adjustment of loan pricing, and actually squeeze the risk premium space.
With the increasing downward pressure on the economy, banks’ problem of rising credit risk for SMEs has increased. Once the risk premium of SME customers corresponding to small and medium banks is not sufficient to cover poor coverage, it will gradually increase the impact of bank credit priority.Loans, thereby forming a vicious circle of credit contraction and business deterioration.

  7. The PPI turned negative after three years, the real interest rate rose, and the industrial company’s balance sheet deteriorated, further reducing bank borrowing intentions. It is necessary to prevent deflation and deleveraging. The PPI turned negative for the first time in three months in 7 months. Stepping into deflation, corporate profitsDecrease, real interest rates rise, commodity prices have fallen, reflecting weak economic demand, worsening balance sheets, and reducing corporate borrowing capacity.

July PPI is -0 per year.

3%, -0.

2%.

Among them, affected by the decline in international crude oil prices, the prices of oil and gas extraction and the petroleum processing industry dropped significantly in July.

We have pointed out in “China’s Leverage Cycle Study: Theory, Status Quo and Prospects” that good deleveraging is a modest and deleveraging that keeps the economy growing at a moderate rate, and that the rate of income growth is greater than the rate of debt growth, effectively enhancing debt repayment capabilities.Deflation and deleveraging, spiraling declines in price levels have caused debtors’ income to continue to decrease, and their ability to repay debts has continued to weaken. It is also necessary to avoid vicious conflict deleveraging, that is, the increase in debtor’s nominal income is essentially a transfer of wealth and a debt default, not a real debt.The actual solvency has improved.

  The current PPI turns negative after a lapse of 3 years, corporate profits increase, and real interest rates rise, resulting in a worsening of the balance sheet, and bank borrowing expectations may be further reduced in the future.

The loan interest rate still depends on corporate credit risk and actual profitability. Once corporate profits accelerate and the real estate market accelerates downward, the economy may enter a deflationary deleveraging channel.

There is a current need for high vigilance on deflation and deleveraging.

  8. Policy Suggestions This reform and perfect LPR formation mechanism is market-oriented, reform-type interest rate reduction, and the reform method is worth encouraging. It is also a step-by-step step to promote the market-oriented rate of return.

However, the current real economy financing still faces multiple difficulties in financing, the credit risk of SMEs still exists, the liquidity issuance channels have substantially narrowed, the liquidity has been subdivided, and the economy has entered deflation. The economic and financial data fell in July in a comprehensive manner, and the economy in the second half of the yearWe will take the next step. Against this background, future reforms can be a little bit more intensive, the steps can be reversed, and a variety of methods can be used to advance reforms into the deep-water area.

  Monetary policy should be dominated by me, subject to domestic economic indicators and the overall situation of reform and development. The current economic and financial data have declined comprehensively. In the second half of the year, the economy will take the next step. PPI has turned negative and deflation, and interest rates have been reduced in various overseas regions.

Grasp the pace and intensity of deleveraging so that the economy maintains a moderate degree of income growth faster than the rate of debt growth, effectively enhancing the ability to pay debts.

Intensify targeted reductions, supplemented by structural monetary policy tools such as TMLF, MLF, re-loan and rediscount to alleviate corporate financing difficulties and solve layered breakthroughs in liquidity.

Speed up the reduction of OMO, MLF and other policy interest rates, and guide the decline in loan interest rates, bond interest rates and corporate real interest rates.

Continue to promote the in-depth development of interest rate marketization, improve the FTP pricing mechanism of financial institutions, and explore the marketization of deposit interest rates.

Grasp the pace and intensity of deleveraging so that the economy maintains a moderate degree of income growth faster than the rate of debt growth, effectively enhancing the ability to pay debts.

  We will intensify structural reforms on the financial supply side, and continue to open up credit channels from wide currency to wide credit, interest rate channels, asset price channels, and expected channels.

(1) Credit channel: Match the financial structure and economic structure, and establish a multi-level, wide-coverage, and differentiated banking system and credit market system; (2) Interest rate channel: Improve the role of LPR in guiding market interest rates and reduce the financing of physical enterprisesReal interest rate, giving play to the linkage effect of interest rate channels and credit channels; (3) Asset price channels: building a multi-level capital market, realizing effective matching of risks and returns, reducing dependence on bank credit, and supporting venture capital through high-risk appetiteSupport new economic financing; (4) Expected channels: continue to expand and actively communicate with the market, strengthen trust, and strengthen the role of active guidance in monetary policy intervention.

  Promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and establish a new housing-oriented housing system and long-term mechanism.
At present, it is usually necessary to prevent the release of currency to stimulate the real estate bubble, or to prevent major financial risks caused by active piercing, and exchange time for space.

Stabilize land prices, stabilize house prices, stabilize expectations, and use the time window to promote housing system reform and long-term mechanisms.

The long-term mechanism is a major reform of the theoretical and substantive principles. It is a result-oriented policy design. There are four main aspects: First, the responsibility of the city’s main body is replaced by the central government of each country, and the local government has the autonomy of scale.Right, starting from the actual situation in various places, in the additional policy toolbox, you can choose the appropriate combination of alternative policies independently, adapt to local conditions, and implement precise policies.

The second is to give local financial, fiscal, tax, land and other policy toolboxes to the central government for assessment and supervision.
The targets reported by the local authorities to the central government at the beginning of each year are subject to monthly monitoring, quarterly assessment and annual assessment.
Commercial housing prices, second-hand housing prices, rents, and land price indexes are trying to keep pace with the CPI.

The third is the market system and guarantee system for housing construction.

To solve the problem of residential housing, we should insist on “low income depends on security, middle income depends on support, and high income depends on the market.”

The fourth is to speed up the real estate tax legislation. The real estate tax is a strategy to cope with land finances from the root cause, and land prices to increase housing prices.

The real estate budget shifts from administrative measures to comprehensive measures, including a package of policy tools such as finance, land, finance and taxation, housing security, and market management.

  The most fundamental thing is to expand reform and opening up, liberalize market access, restore entrepreneurs ‘confidence, stimulate new economic growth points such as the new economy and the service industry, reduce the scale of enterprises and residents’ taxes and fees; implement social security accounts and improve the level of social security for residentsResidents can spend with peace of mind; liberalize industry regulations for automobiles, finance, telecommunications, medical care, etc .; partially purchase corporate debts with equity pledge risks; and take out some good assets for mixed reform.

Mobilize the enthusiasm of local governments and entrepreneurs, choose to incentivize local governments with gradual development assessment, establish a multi-level capital market, and improve SME financing.

Now we need to give local officials new incentives and give private entrepreneurs peace of mind.

Wuliangye (000858) 2018 Annual Report Review: 2018’s Beautiful Performance Ends in 19Q1 Attempts to Usher in a “Bright Start”

Wuliangye (000858) 2018 Annual Report Review: 2018’s Beautiful Performance Ends in 19Q1 Attempts to Usher in a “Bright Start”

Opinion report / An event overview of the food and beverage industry The company released its 2018 annual report on March 27. The actual realized operating income / net profit attributable to the mother were 40 / 13.4 billion US dollars, up to +32.

6% / + 38.

4%; basic EPS3.

47 yuan; a cash dividend of 17 yuan is planned for every 10 shares.

  Second, analyze and judge that the sales of liquor in 2018 exceeded 19 years, and the growth rate of production and sales of high-priced wines was faster than the overall 2018.The company achieved revenue of 40 billion US dollars, and the high-priced wines / low-priced wines had a revenue of 302 / US $ 7.6 billion, up from +41% / + 13%, with high-priced wines performing well; 19 replacements for liquor sales, + 6% per year.

Q4’s net income from revenue / attribution was US $ 100.8 / 3.9 billion, +31% / + 44% per year; revenue growth rate 青岛夜网 basically matched this, and profit growth rate was slightly higher than the above.

In general, Q4’s performance was slightly better than the first three quarters, and its performance fell at the center of the previous forecast period.

  Insist on brand slimming, focus on “1 + 3”, “4 + 4” product system Since 2018, the company has proposed a brand slimming plan, cleaning up the total distribution products that are harmful to the Wuliangye brand, and gradually solving the industry of total distribution products and self-operated large single products.Competition issues.

It is expected that in the future, the company will strengthen the construction of large brands and concentrate its resources on building a “1 + 3” and “4 + 4” core product system.

  The 7th generation of the 5th Spring Festival is ideal for dehydration, and the price of the 8th generation of the 5th Spring Festival is optimistic. It is estimated that the shipment volume of the Wuliangye series products (including 1618, delivery cups, low, etc.) for the Spring Festival this year will be about 8,000 tons, + 15-20% each time.Shipments are better than market expectations, and the company is expected to usher in a good start.

In June of this year, the eighth-generation Puwu will be fully listed.

Considering that the degeneration of the seventh-generation Puwu inventory is ideal during the Spring Festival, it is expected that the ex-factory price of the eight-generation Puwu will be set at a high probability of 889 yuan, according to the current distribution ratio (56% of the seventh generation, 9% of the commemorative edition, and 35% of the eighth generation).The annual cost is around 830 yuan, and it is expected that the approval price will rise to more than 850 yuan in the second half of the year.

We believe that 1618 and low-grade Wuliangye are expected to become the core driving force for the growth of high-end sales in the second half of the year, and the 8th generation of the plan is only 5250 tons during the year. Therefore, its core task is to continue to maintain prices to repair dealer profit margins.

  Third, profit forecasting and investment recommendations It is estimated that the company will achieve an operating income of 500/590 / 69.1 billion US dollars in 19-21 years, + 25% / + 18% / + 17% per year; and a net profit of 17/202 / 23.8 billion US dollars attributable to mothers.The annual +27% / + 19% / + 18% corresponds to an EPS of 4.

38/5.

20/6.

13 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 20/17/14 times.

At present, the overall liquor industry is estimated to be 29 times, and the company is estimated to exceed the overall level of the industry, giving a “recommended” rating.

  Fourth, risk warning: economic growth drags down demand, approval prices are lower than expected, food safety issues, etc.

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The 2 trillion yuan fund boosted market confidence. On the day before the first trading day of the Year of the A-share Rat, Ma Jiaxin released a positive signal to release all strength.

  On February 2, an announcement was announced in advance that it would be implemented on February 3, 2020 in order to maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system and a stable operation of the currency market during the special period of disease prevention and control.

The US $ 2 trillion reverse market repo operation invested funds to ensure excessive liquidity supply, and the overall liquidity of the banking system was 900 billion yuan more than the same period last year.

  The market view believes that this move will greatly maintain the excessive supply of liquidity in the market after the Spring Festival, avoid the spread of panic, and stabilize market expectations.

  Historical rare reverse repo operations From the perspective of the transition to the past in the open market operation, the reverse repurchase operation is generally carried out on the day of the announcement, and the announcement of the announcement one day in advance is rare in history.

  Wen Bin, chief analyst of Minsheng Bank, told reporters in the International Financial News that the change in the alternative operation mode is mainly due to the special period of epidemic prevention and control, which will help maintain a large supply of liquidity in the post-holiday market and help financeInstitutions do a good job of liquidity management, avoid market panic, maintain a stable operation of money market interest rates, and stabilize market expectations.

  It is reported that officials of the People ‘s Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have mentioned in the “Notice on Extending the Inter-bank Market Break Time Arrangement”
. In view of the gradual expansion of the scale after the market opening on February 3, the People ‘s Bank of China will use open market operations.Monetary policy tools, such as monetary policy instruments, should be put in place in a timely manner to maintain a reasonable and adequate liquidity of the banking system.

  With the advancement of epidemic prevention and control work, the “Notice on Further Strengthening Financial Support for the Prevention and Control of New Coronavirus Infectious Pneumonia” issued by the five departments of the People’s Bank of China, the Ministry of Finance, the Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission, the Securities Regulatory Commission and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange recently.Among them, the top one is “maintaining a reasonable and sufficient liquidity and increasing the support for money and credit”, and the first of them particularly highlights “maintaining a reasonable and sufficient liquidity”.

  Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, also said in an interview with the media that after the opening of the financial market on February 3, it will provide sufficient liquidity, increase the intensity of counter-cyclical adjustments, and maintain reasonable and adequate liquidity in the financial market.To maintain the smooth operation of money market interest rates.

  ”Especially considering the dual effects of the special period of the epidemic and the deferred opening of the market, the People’s Bank of China will provide liquidity to the market through a variety of monetary policy tools such as open market operations, standing borrowing facilities, refinancing, and re-discounting.

The People’s Bank of China will maintain close communication with financial institutions and financial markets, fully understand market liquidity conditions and liquidity needs, study and judge liquidity conditions, promptly release policy information, and strengthen expected guidance.

Pan Gongsheng said.

  Promoting the confidence of financial markets In terms of the amount of funds invested, it has also been stated for a long time that it allocated more than US $ 900 billion over the same period of previous years to maintain a more adequate level of liquidity.

  Wen Bin said that from the past history, generally after the Spring Festival, a large amount of cash released before the holiday will be returned to the banking system, and the alternating liquidity demand of the banking system will decline. Generally, the open market reverse repurchase operation will be temporarily suspended, andAfter the purchase expires, the liquidity will naturally return.

  The first release of the first post-holiday post-holiday launch of the reverse repo operation netted liquidity, hedging the termination of reverse repurchase funds, and maintaining it at a more redundant level than the old fashioned.

Wen Bin further pointed out that this reflects the determination of the complementary supply of liquidity and operational substitution, which has helped financial institutions to support epidemic prevention and control, serve the real economy, and maintain the stability of financial markets. This has helped stabilize financial institutions’ expectations.To boost confidence in financial markets.

  The Deputy Director of CITIC Securities Research Institute clearly believes that with the massive liquidity transfer and the implementation of weekend interventions implemented in this transitional implementation, the gradual realization of the balance of macroeconomic and capital markets will achieve smooth 佛山桑拿网 operation.

“This time the liquidity investment is very timely and the volume is relatively large. Even after considering the expired volume, the investment volume is also considerable.”

  Obviously, from the perspective of calendar years, after the Spring Festival, generally such a large number of operations will not be carried out, this move is mainly to boost market confidence.

Of course, at present, the entire epidemic has a relatively large impact on market sentiment, and classification policies will still be needed in the future.

Through the transition around the weekend and the CBRC, the CSRC launched a series of policies, etc. Through the promotion and roll-out of such policies, they will be confident to hedge the impact of the epidemic and maintain the smooth operation of the entire macroeconomic and capital markets.

China National Travel Service (601888) Important Matters: Hong Kong Airport’s temporary grounding has limited impact

China National Travel Service (601888) Important Matters: Hong Kong Airport’s temporary grounding has limited impact

On August 12, through the escalation of Hong Kong demonstrations, a large number of demonstrators held a rally at Hong Kong International Airport.

深圳桑拿网The Airport Authority of Hong Kong Airport announced that due to the public meeting at the airport, the operation of the airport has been seriously affected. Except for flights that have completed boarding procedures and flights to Hong Kong, all other flights on the 12th have been cancelled.

As far as we know, China Duty Free Hong Kong Airport Duty Free Shop was closed on the 12th.

It is expected to continue to be affected on the 13th, but it is expected to return to normal levels afterwards.

We think that we have seen huge impact on Hong Kong duty-free shops, and the overall proportion of Hong Kong airports in China ‘s duty-free is relatively low, so the impact is limited.

Uncertainty is expected to increase in Hong Kong, and the China Hong Kong and Hong Kong stores are expected to be affected in the short term.

About 重庆耍耍网 20% of Hong Kong’s tourists tungsten comes from mainland China.

We believe that if the impact of demonstrations in Hong Kong continues, the length of passengers at Hong Kong Airport will gradually be affected by ground impacts, and boots will affect the sales of duty-free shops at Hong Kong Airport.

We assume that Hong Kong Airport ‘s tax-free sales income will decrease by about 50% as the transfer of mainland tourists ‘travel to Hong Kong decreases, and Hong Kong Airport ‘s tax-free income is expected to decrease to 7 in the second half of the year.

700 million (previously estimated 1.4 billion), corresponding to a decrease in sales revenue of Hong Kong stores by about 2 billion (previously estimated 2.7 billion).

In terms of profitability, pessimistic expectations predict that the equity income of China Duty Free Hong Kong Airport Duty Free Shop will be reduced to 40 million yuan, a decrease of about 80 million yuan.

But the impact is relatively manageable.

The main reasons are: 1) due to the impact of Hong Kong airports, it is expected that some aviation demand will be transferred to airports such as Baiyun and Shanghai, and China Exemption will also be the operator of these airport duty-free shops, which will hedge the impact of Hong Kong duty-free shops to a certain extent; 2) According to our calculations, under pessimistic conditions, the revenue of Hong Kong Airport Duty Free Shop will be reduced by 700 million yuan and the profit will be reduced by about 80 million yuan. Compared to the 46 billion yuan in revenue of China National Travel Service which we have gradually predicted in 2019, the main business net profit39.

The proportion of 800 million is only about 1.

5% and 2.

0%, the impact is controllable.

Risk factors: Slower-than-expected increase in gross profit margin; lower-than-expected tax exemption policy and airport bidding; lower-than-expected Haitang Bay project operation; risks of slower-than-expected progress in state-owned enterprise reform.

Investment advice: Generally speaking, the uncertainty of the situation in Hong Kong is more likely to cause market concerns.

However, we believe that the potential potential impacts of Hong Kong Airport Duty Free in this region on the company’s revenue and profit are within the controllable range, and the transformation, in the long run, the Shanghai Airport Duty Free Shop to which the company belongs, Baiyun Airport Duty Free Shop will benefit fromHong Kong Airport Spillover Effect.

Maintaining a view on the company’s core investment logic: policy flexibility in the context of attracting consumption backflow, China Exemption, as China’s tax-exempt leader, is expected to benefit significantly.

The company’s current profit forecast does not include the potential factors such as the liberalization of the Chinese people’s tax-free policies in the city, the acquisition of Haikou stores, and the further integration of the internal market. Therefore, the company may look small but not low, but the actual hidden value is still notCompletely released.

As the situation at all levels in Hong Kong still needs to be observed, the impact is uncertain, and the company’s performance forecast is temporarily maintained: EPS 2 is expected in 2019-21.

41/2.

37/2.

74 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Jinhe Industry (002597) Incident Review: New 5000t maltol and 5000t sucralose recycling industrial park project steadily promotes future development worth looking forward to

Jinhe Industry (002597) Incident Review: New 5000t maltol and 5000t sucralose recycling industrial park project steadily promotes future development worth looking forward to
Key investment events: Jinhe Industry issued an announcement that the company invested in its own funds to build a 5,000-ton sucralose project; the holding subsidiary Yinzhou Jinwo Biological Technology Co., Ltd. was implemented as a project, with its own funds to build an annual output of 5,000 tons.Maltol project.  At the same time, the company issued an announcement to adjust some of the planned projects of the first phase of the Jinhe Industrial Circular Economy Industrial Park.Salt and other items.  Adjusted to “Buy” investment rating.Jinhe Industry is the global maltol industry leader, and the sucralose production capacity is also in the first echelon. Through the construction of 5,000 tons of maltol and 5,000 tons of sucralose, the company will further consolidate the industry advantage and increase the company’s performance.At the same time, the diversified product range of the Dingyuan Circular Economy Industrial Park project will promote the adjustment of the company’s product structure, speed up business development, and enhance the company’s overall core competitiveness.  Jinhe Industry is a leading enterprise of food additives.The company mainly synthesizes sweetener acesulfame, sucralose and spice maltol have the world’s largest production capacity, and the downstream demand of products continues to grow rapidly.Ansaimi’s industry structure is stable and product profitability. 北京夜网 In the competitive stage of sucralose and maltol, the company continues to improve its technological level, build an integrated industrial chain to strengthen its cost advantage, and promote the market to continue to improve its profitability.With 1,500 tons of sucralose in 19 years, Dingyuan Phase I maltol and sucralose raw materials have been put into production successively, and Dingyuan Phase II potassium sorbate and its raw material planning have been advanced in an orderly manner.To create new business growth points.  We maintain the company’s EPS for 2019-2021.47, 1.76 and 2.The 24 yuan forecast considers that the company’s existing business trend is good, the new business has a bright future, the company’s product structure is constantly improved, and its core competitiveness is continuously improved.  Risk warning: The price of chemical products fluctuates sharply, new projects are put into operation less than expected, and downstream demand is sluggish.

Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050): New energy vehicle business increased in proportion to meet expectations

Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050): New energy vehicle business increased in proportion to meet expectations

Event: The company released its 2019 semi-annual report, 1) Realizing revenue 58.

31 ppm, +4 a year.

31%; net profit attributable to mother 6.

93 trillion, +2 for ten years.

35%; net profit of non-attributed mothers 6.

4.2 billion, at least -4.

82%; 2) In a single quarter, 2019Q1 / Q2 revenue was 27.

8 billion, 30.

500 million, an annual increase of 7.

9% / 1.

23%; net profit attributable to mothers is 2.

59/4.

4.3 billion, an annual increase of 4.

18% / 1.

29%; 3) Three expenses: sales / management (including R & D) / financial expenses are 2.

63/5.

53/0.

1.2 billion every year 4.

6% / 22.

4% / + 382%; overall control of the three expenses is good.

4) Net cash flow from operating activities 8.

3 billion.

Performance was in line with expectations; gross profit margin increased significantly in the single quarter.

2019Q1 / Q2 are 25 respectively.

24% / 31.

12%, single quarter gross profit margin increased significantly, we believe that the main reasons are: 1) product structure reasons, especially higher gross profit margins of new energy automotive products increased; 2) cost reduction; due to weak industry demand, traditional refrigeration and air-conditioning componentsUnder pressure, commercial air-conditioning components contributed to performance growth.

Revenue from traditional refrigeration and air-conditioning components is 50%.

67 trillion, ten years +3.

41%, the growth rate of this business is mainly due to: 1) affected by downstream air-conditioning market demand and digestion of inventory, among which traditional household refrigeration and air-conditioning components have been replaced at a faster rate, and commercial air-conditioning components have maintained steady growth.

2) Revenue from micro-channel business 6.

4.7 billion, previously + 5%; net profit 0.

8.1 billion, a year of -21.

72%; 3) Yaweike’s business was lower than expected, with revenue 4.

5.5 billion, at least -24.

69%, net profit decreased by 15.59 million yuan; the future of traditional air conditioning and refrigeration components Aspect: the company’s continued development of energy-efficient product applications, is expected to bring business growth.

The proportion of new energy vehicle business increased.

In H1 2019, the company’s auto zero business revenue was 7.

6.4 billion, accounting for 13% of total revenue, +10 in ten years.64%, achieving net profit1.

58 ppm, + 12% per year, the contribution of auto parts to the net profit of the mother accounted for 22.

The growth rate of traditional vehicles in the first half of the year, and the high growth of new energy vehicle business contributed to the growth of auto zero business (the proportion of new energy vehicle business revenue increased to 43%, contributing revenue3.

2.8 billion).

Through continuous technological upgrades, the products have been developed from parts to components, and some companies have already developed customers such as Valeo, Mahler, Tesla, Volkswagen, Mercedes, BMW, Volvo, GM, Geely, BYD, SAIC and other customers.Orders, the value of the largest bicycle is nearly RMB 5,000, and there are ample orders in hand. It is expected 南宁桑拿 that in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 2020 mass production and sales of overseas models, the new energy vehicle thermal management business will maintain high growth next year.

The proportion of exports has increased, overseas markets have expanded, and the layout of global production bases has improved significantly: the company’s export revenue28.

9.8 billion, ten years +11.

92%, accounting for 49.

7% (up 3.

38%); domestic income 29.

330,000 yuan, at least -2.

26%; the company has established overseas production bases in the United States, Poland, Mexico, Vietnam and other places, and has gradually transformed into production response capabilities, helping to open up overseas markets.

R & D expansion, implementation of share repurchases, and the return of value.

As of the end of the second quarter of 19, the company gradually increased its own funds2.

2 trillion, repurchase 1562 shares.

60,000 shares (accounting for 0 of the total share capital).

57%), promote the reasonable return of the company’s stock value, and show confidence in the company’s future development.

Company R & D, 2019H1 R & D 2.

4.9 billion, +21 a year.

01%, R & D investment continued to increase.

Investment suggestion: As a global leader in refrigeration control components, the company continues to consolidate its leading position.

Sanhuaqi’s zero-new energy vehicle thermal management business, expanding international first-tier car companies with full orders, will benefit from global new energy vehicle sales growth; we expect the company’s net profit to be 14 in 2019-2021.

4/17.

36/20.

12 ppm, an increase of 11 in ten years.

4% / 20.

6% / 159%, corresponding to 21/17/15 times the PE, maintaining the buying level.

Risk warning: downstream demand growth rate, exchange rate fluctuation risk, raw material price fluctuations, new energy vehicle sales are less than expected risk

Datang Power (601991): Regional differentiation weighs on overall performance and waits for coal prices to fall

Datang Power (601991): Regional differentiation weighs on overall performance and waits for coal prices to fall

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved operating income of 933.

90 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.

93% (restated); realized net profit attributable to mother 12.

35 ppm, a reduction of 17 per year.

50% (restated), lower than Shenwan Hongyuan’s expectations.

The company’s annual dividend distribution plan for 2018 is 1 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, and the dividend ratio is 149.

89%.

  Investment points: The acquisition of group assets will bring about expansion of installed capacity, and negative growth in thermal power generation in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and other places will drag down overall revenue growth.

In April 2018, the company took cash 181.

The US $ 2.8 billion successfully acquired 100% equity of Heilongjiang, Anhui and Hebei of the controlling shareholder Datang Group, increasing the installed capacity by approximately 13.91 million kilowatts. As of the end of 2018, the company’s installed capacity gradually increased by 62.85 million kilowatts and increased by 30.

86%.

Affected by the dual energy control of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places, the company’s thermal power generation in the above regions showed negative growth, dragging down the company’s overall thermal power generation growth rate. The company’s thermal power generation in 2018 increased after restatement.

98%, which is significantly lower than the national electricity consumption growth rate of 8.

5%.

Affected by this, the company’s thermal power unit utilization in 2018 was 4,728 hours, an increase of 73 hours.

In addition, the company ‘s installed energy utilization hours are divided into different levels, among which hydropower, wind power, and photovoltaic have been reduced by 53, 98, and 117 hours, respectively, which has dragged down the company ‘s overall revenue growth rate.

  The Tuoketuo power station is still the main source of profit. The performance exceeded expectations or it was the expansion of newly injected assets.

The company realized net profit (including minority shareholders’ profit and loss) in 201827.

900,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.

85%, of which the company holds a 60% share of the Tuoketuo Power Station and a 40% share of the Tuoketuo Second Power Station, contributing a total of 16 net profit.

55 ppm, an increase of 76 in ten years.

2%.

The company’s 2018 annual report disclosed a total of 22 subsidiaries (excluding three newly injected companies) with a total net profit of 51.

58 ppm, an increase of 44 in ten years.

27%, for the first time, it is estimated that the rest of the company’s factories will replace 23 in 2018.

690,000 yuan, the same period in 2017 is possible11.

2.6 billion.

In view of the monthly rise in coal prices in Heilongjiang Province in 2018, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Energy double-controlled the suppression of thermal power utilization hours. Considering the increase in the proportion of profit and loss of minority shareholders in the consolidated statement of net profit in 2018, we judge that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers will decreaseOr due to the expansion of newly injected assets.

  The nation’s power supply and demand is improving, and it is expected to expand adjustment and lower coal prices to release performance elasticity.

In the context of the current reform of the national coal-fired power supply side, the growth rate of thermal power installed capacity has continued, and the national electricity supply and demand pattern has improved.

With the gradual release of high-quality production capacity in the “Three West” region, the coal price index for the first time changed in the fourth quarter. Taking into account the current high inventory of power plants and the safety of rectified coal mines, production is resumed one after another. We expect that the national coal supply and demand will become loose in 2019.Coal prices are expected to maintain a downward trend since the fourth quarter of 2018. The company’s gross profit margin forecast continues to be repaired, and the elasticity of coal price performance promotes further release.

At the same time, the two conferences this year proposed raising the tax rate and reducing three mergers. The reduced tax rate will be implemented from April 1 this year.

The company is currently at a low point of performance, and the flexibility of performance 深圳spa会所 is expected to gradually release.

  Earnings forecast and forecast: The combined company’s 2018 performance, taking into account the fall in coal prices and the reduction of 3 units in the conversion, we adjusted the profit forecast for 19-20 to 28.

18, 40.

2.5 billion (40 before adjustment).

43 and 42.

US $ 8.1 billion), and the net profit attributable to mothers in 202148.180 thousand yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 23, 16, 13 times, respectively, maintaining the “overweight” level.