Zhongzhi Co., Ltd. (600038): The first three quarters of results have exceeded expectations and the company has risen and development channels open
1.The event company achieved operating income of 105 in the first three quarters.
28 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.
63%; net profit attributable to mother 4.
40,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.
12%, deducting non-net profit 3.
8.3 billion, an annual increase of 28.
56%, the basic EPS is 0.
2.Our analysis and judgment (I) The performance growth exceeded expectations, and revenue and profit went hand in hand. The company’s revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2019 was 28.
63%, mainly due to the increase in the delivery of aviation products.
Q3 single quarter revenue increased by 28 in ten years.
39%, although it is 40% more than Q2.
The growth rate of 23% has improved, but it is still the second highest growth rate since 2013, indicating that the company’s business development has entered the fast track.
The company’s net profit attributable to its mother increased by 32 in the first three quarters of Q3 and Q3.
12% and 27.
34%, which exceeded expectations.
The number of reports, although the company ‘s comprehensive gross profit level increased by -1 (-1.
15 pct), but the company’s period expense ratio has also decreased (-1.
28pct), slimming body + quality improvement and efficiency effects are significant, and the company ‘s net profit margin increased by 0.
14pct, ROE level increased by 0.
97 points to 5.
14%, profitability has improved.
Looking into the future, we believe that the adoption of new and new general-purpose helicopters will gradually enter the mass production stage, and the continued growth of aviation product revenue can be expected, and the rapid growth of expected performance will continue.
(2) The company is expected to benefit from the development of the aviation industry in the future. The State Council’s “Several Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Civil Aviation Industry” clearly states that the general aviation industry will be vigorously developed in the future, and the general aviation market investment boom has quietly risen in many cities.
At present, the routine coincides with the social transition period, accidents, public health, social public safety and other emergencies, but usually the aviation emergency rescue system is still in its initial stage and there are differences.
Taking Germany as an example, Germany is currently equipped with 53 helicopter rescue stations, and a helicopter take-off and landing point is built every 50 mm to ensure that the helicopter can reach any place where rescue needs occur within 5-10 minutes.
As the main equipment for aviation emergency rescue, there are very few helicopters that can be used for emergency rescue missions in general. The construction of aviation 苏州夜网论坛 emergency rescue system has a very urgent need for helicopters.
As a first-class helicopter R & D and manufacturing base, the company has the capability of independent research and development and mass production of multi-type, multi-series and multi-type helicopters.
The company has formed a product development layout of “production generation, development generation, pre-research generation, exploration generation”. The existing core products include straight 8, straight 9, straight 11, AC311, AC312, AC313 and other series helicopters, as well as the 12 series.Light multi-purpose aircraft has basically formed a good pattern of “one aircraft with multiple types and series development”.
In the future, the company is expected to benefit from the development of the domestic general aviation industry.
(3) Straight 20 杭州桑拿网 appeared on the National Day parade. Soon after the dazzling new star was slowly rising, the Straight 20 appeared on the National Day parade and Tianjin Air Show.
As the first autonomous multi-purpose helicopter platform in China, the introduction of the Zhi20 will add a wealth of helicopter family genealogy, which is of great significance.
Due to the unique appearance and configuration of the Zhi-20 and the deployment of advanced airborne systems, it can meet the needs of various military missions of the PLA in the future and is expected to play an important role in the field of general aviation.
Domestic straight 20-pair American Blackhawk helicopters have been produced since the date of production, and it has become one of the most produced helicopters in the world.
The Zhi 20 has just emerged, and it is expected that a variety of military and civilian models will be derived in the future, with huge development potential and huge market space.
As the only domestic manufacturer of this model, the company will benefit significantly.
(4) Expectations of asset securitization still exist. The company will benefit from the company ‘s third largest shareholder, the Hong Kong stock company AVIC, which announced in October last year that it intends to acquire 100% equity of AVIC Helicopter Co., Ltd., which is the first step in the overall listing of helicopter business.
The announcement on October 13, 2019 stated that the company, AVIC and Tianjin Bonded Investment have reached an agreement on the overall plan for the proposed acquisition, and progress has been made smoothly.We believe that the company, as an A-share listed company, is expected to benefit from the overall listing of the helicopter business in the future.
3．Investment recommendations Based on the performance of the company’s semi-annual and third quarterly reports and revisions to the company’s future development expectations, we raise the company’s forecast for the next three years.
It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent from 2019 to 2021 will be 6, respectively.
64 billion, 8.
5.3 billion and 1.
09 billion, EPS is 1.
13 yuan, 1.
45 yuan and 1.
85 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 38x, 29x and 23x.
With reference to comparable companies in the industry, the company’s estimated advantages are obvious, and as the leader of the domestic helicopter industry, the company’s estimated level should be given an appropriate premium.
Benefiting from the development of domestic general-purpose helicopters and the development of the general aviation industry, the company’s medium- and long-term development prospects are expected to maintain the “recommended” level.
Risk warning: risks of insufficient production capacity and slow development of the navigation market.