[Fried Chicken Clavicle Marinade]_Fried Chicken Clavicle_How to do_How to do

銆愮偢楦¢攣楠ㄨ厡鏂欍€慱鐐搁浮閿侀_濡備綍鍋歘鎬庝箞鍋?
This is the only way to make sure that you are not in trouble. You can borrow it from the masters of the world, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, the master, and the master.紝鎵€闇€瑕佸摢涓€浜涜皟鍛虫枡涔熻鏈夋墍璁茬┒锛屾墍浠ュぇ瀹跺彲浠ョ湅鐪嬩互涓嬫墍浠嬬粛鐨勭偢楦¢攣楠ㄥ仛娉曘€?鍋氭硶涓€銆佺偢楦¢攣楠?鍘熴€€銆€鏂?楦¢攣楠ㄣ€佽姟绮夈€佹櫘閫氶潰绮夈€佺洂銆佸钃夈€佹场鎵撶矇銆侀叡娌广€佹枡閰掋€佹按銆佽彍娌广€佺孩娌广€佸懗绮俱€佽姖楹汇€侀夯娌广€佸瓬鐒躲€傘€傛搷銆€銆€浣?涓€銆佸噯澶囷細灏嗗墐濂界殑閿侀娲楀共鍑€锛岀洂娑傚湪琛ㄩ潰锛岀敤鎵嬭交杞绘煍浣跨洂鍒嗗潎鍖€锛屾坊鍔犱竴浜涘钃夛紝鍏卞悓鑵屽埗30鍒嗛挓鍏ュ懗鍚庢礂鎺夎〃闈㈢洂鍒嗐€備簩銆佸埗浣滈潰绯婏細鑺$矇鍜屾櫘閫氶潰绮夋寜鐓?Adze?銆?This is the best seller in the world, and it ‘s very difficult to find out what ‘s happening in the field. It ‘s very difficult to find out what is happening in the field. It ‘s a good way to make a decision. It ‘s hard to find out what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on?-3灏忓嫼oil鑿滄补銆備笁銆佸仛娉曪細1銆佸皢楦¢攣楠ㄦ斁鍏ラ潰绯婁腑涓よ竟閮芥簿涓婇潰绯娿€?銆佺儹娌归攨锛屽湪6鎴愮儹鐨勬椂鍊欎笅楦¢攣楠紝浣庢俯鐐哥啛锛屽嚭閿呫€?Remedy: Remedy 9 Reminders: Remarks: Perforation, Refreshing, Resolving, Resolving, Retrieving, and StackingChopped up and down: what’s going on?漶 у 嫼 Tweezers?銆?Identify and make up for it: I am a manuscript, I am so beautiful, and I am 1灏忓嫼楹绘补銆傜敤灏忓埛瀛愯秮鐑樃鐫€璋冩枡鍒峰湪鐐稿ソ鐨勯浮閿侀涓婏紝鍚屾椂娲掍笂鐔熻姖楹诲拰瀛滅劧銆傚仛娉曚簩銆?Can you ▼ ad?1锛夊皢鍘熸枡瀹屽叏瑙e喕鍚庛€佸畬鍏ㄦ播骞插緟鐢ㄣ€?锛夐儴鍒嗘补鐐稿師鏂欓渶鏀瑰垁锛屽湪琛ㄧ毊涓婅交鍒掑嚑鍒€銆傦紙濡傦細楦″ぇ鑵裤€佺繀涓瓑Adze?What are you going to do? Do you have a question? What are you going to do? Floating 鍥?Advice?Adorable?100g: 10g: 20g father and father cans 2-3 忏 夔 宸 宸 ﹀ 圃 厡 揂 欐 槸 冲 冲 ソ Ti 庣 硗 镄 勯 可 Different g 奢 楦 $ Mongolian: Patented by the patent鍙互锛夈€備簩锛夎9绮夎繃绋嬶細锛堥潰绮夛細鐢熺矇锛氶杈g偢楦$矇=2Adze?锛?锛?锛変笂瑁圭矇鍓嶉渶纭繚鍘熸枡琛ㄩ潰鍏呭垎婀挎鼎锛屼絾蹇呴』娌ュ共锛屽惁鍒欒9绮変笉鏄撳潎鍖€銆?Admittedly, you will be able to find out what is going on in the world, and you will be able to see how the world is doing, and how to do it, if you want to check it out, you will be able to see how it works.5 娆 ‘s mutual papers and papers?What are you looking for?It’s a boring chip, and it’s a bit of a mess. It’s a pack of backpacks. It’s a pack of backpacks. A pack of packs and a pack of packs. A pack of packs and a pack of packs. Do you have a look? Do you want to go?Month?弆 锋 播 骞 髞 橠 重 掠 麴 卆 喆 閆 鍏 ュ A total of beautiful reading and reading  畲 婅 呁 Gui Guimeng 哫 嬫 嬫 嬂 参 参 珶 珶 5-10 商 Mutual intermittent 序 峏 姏 寏 篏What’s the matter? What’s the matter? What’s going on?炁 瑽 ソ 夸 擸 熸 瞡 援 旗 獛 荗 荣荣 貣 貣 璖 璖 ﹀ 垯 浼 卼 卝 卝 嶉 碁 琗 囩 曑 離 熸 垚 銆 傸 傸 訸 悸 悸 悸 悸 悸 悸 悸 永What’s wrong?-6鍒嗛挓锛岀偢鑷宠壊娉芥贰閲戦粍鎹炶捣銆傜敤鐗欑鍒烘渶鍘氬鐪嬫槸鍚︽湁琛€姘村啋鍑恒€?

[How about drinking chrysanthemum tea every day]_Chrysanthemum Tea_Benefits_Efficacy

[How about drinking chrysanthemum tea every day]_Chrysanthemum Tea_Benefits_Efficacy

Many people have the habit of drinking chrysanthemum tea, but they need to focus on selection. Not everyone is suitable for drinking chrysanthemum tea. In addition, you must master the time and frequency of drinking chrysanthemum tea. Because chrysanthemum tea is slightly cold, it cannotDrink too much.

First, can you drink chrysanthemum tea every day?

Chrysanthemum is slightly cold. Although it has the effects of clearing heat and detoxifying, anti-inflammatory and antibacterial effects, it has certain effects on symptoms such as eye fatigue, constipation, and fire. However, chrysanthemum tea is not suitable for drinking every day.May cause damage to the spleen and stomach.

Second, how often to drink chrysanthemum tea is not suitable for long-term continuous. How often you drink it depends on your physical condition, usually once a week for 3 to 5 days, but the body is cold, the number of weak people should be lessDrink, it is best to reduce the number of times, the chrysanthemum is cold, you can add a little wolfberry to cooperate.

Third, the amount of chrysanthemum tea you drink at a time can be combined in four seasons, but the average person with chrysanthemum tea is best not to exceed five at a time, and the elderly and people with low blood pressure should not drink chrysanthemum tea each time.More than three.

Fourth, the benefits of drinking chrysanthemum tea: 1, sterilization and anti-inflammatory.

Modern research shows that chrysanthemum decoction and water extract have inhibitory effects on a variety of bacteria and viruses, and have a good preventive effect on colds.

2. Clean and moisturize the skin.

Experts say that drinking more chrysanthemum tea usually can speed up the blood circulation inside the body, remove body excretion, and penetrate the role of moist skin.

3. Reduce serum hypertension and prevent cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.

Chrysanthemum has the effect of helping to open the coronary arteries and increase coronary flow, and at the same time it can also help lower serum and plasma, which is very beneficial in the heart and cerebral blood vessels.

4, anti-cancer anti-cancer.

The chrysanthemum grains contain a special kind of flavonoid antioxidants. This substance kills antigens in combination with chemotherapy, so it can solve the role of helping chemotherapy.

5, cure colds, headaches.

Chrysanthemum is sweet, bitter, and slightly cold. It is effective in treating dizziness, dizziness, bloating, and headache caused by exogenous wind and heat, fever, chills, and swelling and pain in the eyes.

6. Treat constipation.

Tannin in chrysanthemum can promote gastrointestinal peristalsis. When stimulating gastric secretion, it can increase appetite, ventilate up and down, and normal bowel movement. Therefore, many people use chrysanthemum tea to treat constipation.

7, clearing heat and detoxifying.

The wild chrysanthemum has good detoxification, clearing heat and swelling effects, and is generally used for reducing fire.

Wild chrysanthemum works best if it causes acne, throat inflammation, exogenous wind and heat, headache, oral ulcers and other symptoms due to dryness and fire.

8. Prevent lead poisoning.

Chrysanthemum in chrysanthemum has a strong affinity with metal elements. It can be combined with lead in the body to form a selenoprotein complex to be excreted from the body to reduce blood lead. The absorption of lead by metal elements such as iron, zinc and other products also has a certain oxidation.Anti-effect.
Therefore, drinking chrysanthemum tea often can prevent lead poisoning.

[Effect of Mazhi Amaranth Drinking Water]_Efficacy_Prerequisite

銆 愰 銺 嘺 媪 娉 ℃ According to the sorrows and ruins 护 抈 殑 擤 殤 护 銆 慱 锷 晸 晸 _ 鐩 婂 
The chains are sloppy and rugged, and they’re so humorous that they’re very busy, and they’re all in trouble. They’re in trouble. They’re in trouble. They’re in the air. They’re in the air. They’re in the air.What are you doing? Do you have a good time? Do you have a good time? Do you have a good time? Do you have a good time? Do you have a good time? Do you have a good time? Do you have a good time? Do you have a good time?氱殑鍔熸晥鐨勶紝鍙互鏀瑰杽鑷繁蹇冭绠$殑鐥囩姸锛屽鏋滄湰韬氨鏈夊績琛€绠$柧鐥呯殑璇濆氨鍙互杈呭姪娌荤枟鐨勶紝灏辫繛琚竴浜涙瘨铔囧挰浼ょ殑璇濅篃鏄彲浠ョ敤椹娇鑻嬭繖绉嶉鏉愭潵杩涜涓€涓揣鎬ュ鐞嗙殑銆備綔鐢細銆愬綕鑽€戠嚂鎹昏タ锛氬叏鑽夋不鐥㈢柧锛岄鎶樸€婃鑽紪銆嬨€傚叏鑽夌敤浜庤偤鐥堣偁鐥堬紝娉勬郴鐥㈢柧锛屽翱閬撶伡鐑紝琛€娣嬪甫涓嬶紝鐥旂槝鍑鸿锛屼钩鐥堢槹鐤紝姣掕泧鍜激锛岄鎶樼榾鑲裤€婂搥鐗€嬨€傚叏鑽夋不鐥㈢柧锛岃偁鐐庯紝鐧炬棩鍜筹紝鑲虹粨鏍革紝鐥堢枛銆婂ぇ鐞嗚祫蹇椼€嬨€傜嚂鎹昏タ椴滐細鍏ㄨ崏涓绘不楠ㄦ姌銆婃皯鏃忚嵂蹇椾簩銆嬨€俒5]銆愬.鑽€戝叺璋凤細鍏ㄨ崏娌荤棦鐤撅紝鑲犵値鑵规郴锛岃倽鐐庯紝鑲虹値锛岃儍鍑鸿锛岀櫧甯︼紝瀛愬鍑鸿锛岀枖鐤紝婀跨柟锛屽甫鐘剁柋鐤广€婃鑽紪銆嬨€傛澐鍥炶杽锛氬叏鏍富娌荤棦鐤撅紝鑲犵値锛岃倽鐐庯紝鑲虹値锛岀櫧甯︼紝鑳冨嚭琛€锛屽瓙瀹嚭琛€锛屽鐢ㄤ簬甯︾姸鐤辩柟锛屾箍鐤癸紝鐤枛绾㈣偪锛岃劚鑲涖€婃粐鐪佸織銆嬨€併€婃粐鑽綍銆嬨€傜櫧娣圭瓫锛屽叺璋凤紝鍒瘝杩烇紝鍏靛ご鍖欙紝姹剧摐锛岀櫧鍜紝宸存灄鑲ワ紝鏉峰洖钖勶細鍏ㄨ崏涓绘不鐥㈢柧锛岃偁鐐庯紝鑲濈値锛岃偤鐐庯紝鐧藉甫锛岃儍鍑鸿锛屽瓙瀹嚭琛€锛屽甫鐘剁柋鐤癸紝婀跨柟锛岀柈鐤栫孩鑲裤€婃皯鏃忚嵂蹇椾簩銆嬨€傘€愭櫙棰囪嵂銆戯細娌荤棦鐤撅紝鑲犵値锛屼钩鑵虹値銆婂痉瀹忚嵂褰曘€嬨€俒5]銆愬痉鏄傝嵂銆戝垁鎬€锛氬姛鐢ㄥ悓鏅鏃忋€婂痉瀹忚嵂褰曘€嬨€俒5]銆愬倛鍍宠嵂銆戞涓嶄縿锛氬叏鑽夋不鎬ユ€ц儍鑲犵値锛岀棦鐤撅紝闃戝熬鐐庯紝涔宠吅鐐庯紝鐥旂柈鍑鸿锛岀櫧甯︼紱澶栨不鐤楃柈鑲跨棝锛屾箍鐤广€婃€掓睙鑽€嬨€俒5]銆愪含鑽€戣档婊╋細鍏ㄨ崏娌荤棦鐤撅紝鑲犵値鑵规郴銆婃鑽紪銆嬨€俒5]銆愪緱鑽€戦獋纰戠锛氬叏鑽夋不鐥㈢柧锛岃偁鐐庤吂娉伙紝楠ㄦ姌銆婃鑽紪銆嬨€傞獋纰戠锛岄獋蹇咃細鍏ㄨ崏涓绘不鐥㈢柧锛岃偁鐐庯紝楠ㄦ姌銆婃皯鏃忚嵂蹇椾簩銆嬨€傞┈宀旓細鍏ㄨ崏娌昏弻鐥紝鑵规郴锛屼究琛€銆俒5]銆愪弧浣嵂銆戣鏀归粦锛氬叏鑽夌叜绯背绋€楗紝甯告湇娌昏偤缁撴牳銆俒5]銆愭弧鑽€戝彾娲涘皯缁欙紝铓傝殎鑿滐細椴滆寧鍙剁叜椋熺敤浜庢鐥紱鐢熻寧鍙舵崳姹佹媽灏戣鐧界硸锛屾按鍐叉湇娌荤枟闃戝熬鐐庯紝姝㈢棝锛涘姞铚傝湝灏戣鐓湇锛屾不鐤楄偤缁撴牳鐥呫€俒5]鍦颁笂閮ㄥ垎锛堥┈榻胯媼锛夛細閰革紝瀵掋€傛竻鐑В姣掞紝鍑夎姝㈣銆傜敤浜庣儹鐥㈣創琛€锛岀儹娣嬶紝甯︿笅鐥咃紝鐥堣偪鎭剁柈锛屼腹姣掋€傜瀛愶細鏄庣洰锛屽埄澶у皬鑲犮€?

[How to make blueberry cheese mousse]_Homemade method of blueberry cheese mousse _How to make blueberry cheese mousse _How to make blueberry cheese mousse

[How to make blueberry cheese mousse]_Homemade method of blueberry cheese mousse _How to make blueberry cheese mousse _How to make blueberry cheese mousse

After working for a day, the body must be relatively tired. At this time, few people will take great care to do some complicated situations. Without prejudice, you can consider some simple home-cooked dishes. The method of blue vanilla cheese mousse is very simple. ItYou don’t need a lot of procedures to make delicious choices in just a few simple steps.

1. Soak blue orchid in hot water, set aside for 2nd time, put gelatine slices in cold water to soften, set aside for 3rd, put cream cheese and milk in a small pot to melt and keep stirring to prevent stickingBottom (turn on low heat to avoid boiling, resulting in oil-water separation) 4. After melting all the cream cheese, put in the previously softened gelatine flakes and sugar and continue to stir to avoid boiling (the same principle as above) 5.Pour the incense into a small pot and continue to stir to avoid boiling. Turn off the heat after mixing well (same principle as above) 6, crush the biscuits 7, put the biscuits into the cup, compact 8 with a spoon, and pour the cooked milkAfter cooling, put it in the refrigerator and refrigerate for 2 hours 9. After refrigerating, sprinkle cocoa powder on the surface and decorate it with 10, sprinkle cocoa powder and sprinkle some coconut powder on the surface, and put the milk paste in any container.Yes, I like 12, take a photo 13, I do n’t put biscuits in the bowl, because I want to try the biscuits with and without the biscuits. How do they taste?Is it easy to learn?

When making it, pay attention to the seasoning, and add soy sauce in an appropriate amount to avoid the taste being too strong.

People (603883): Proposed to establish long-term incentive mechanism to ensure long-term healthy development

People (603883): Proposed to establish long-term incentive mechanism to ensure long-term healthy development
Event company announced the 2019 budget stock incentive plan (budget) and 2018 performance report on the evening of March 11th, the company released the 2019 annual stock incentive plan (budget), which is intended to be awarded to a total of 208 senior management and core technology (business) personnelThe best stocks totaled 181.820,000 shares, accounting for 0 of the company’s share capital at the time of the announcement of the incentive plan.64%. Recently, the company announced the results of the 2018 results, the company realized operating income in 2018, net profit attributable to mothers and net profit after deductions were 94.8.4 billion, 4.3.5 billion and 4.1.3 billion, an increase of 26 each year.43%, 17.20% and 19.46%, achieving a profit of 1.53 yuan, in line with our Air Force expectations. The short review released a series of stock incentive plans, which ensure long-term healthy development. The company’s acquisition of stock incentive plans intends to have additional stock reserves for a total of 208 senior management and core technical (business) personnel.820,000 shares, accounting for 0 of the company’s share capital at the time of the announcement of the incentive plan.64%, of which 165 was awarded for the first time.440,000 shares, accounting for 0 of the company’s total share capital.58%; budget 160,000 shares, accounting for 0 of the company’s total share capital.06%, the grant price is 30.12 yuan / share.At the same time, the company’s performance assessment indicators and personal performance assessment indicators are set up. Based on the company’s performance assessment indicators, based on the 2018 net profit, the net profit growth in 2019-2021 should not be less than 20%, 45%, 70% (10-year increase(20%, 21%, and 17%, respectively); in terms of personal performance evaluation indicators, the annual evaluation completion rate ≥ 100% is qualified, otherwise it is not qualified and the evaluation cycle is once a year. We believe that the company’s supplementary stock incentive plan can establish a long-term incentive mechanism: 1) Fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the company’s core management team and core business (technical) backbones, and effectively bring the interests of shareholders, the company’s interests and the personal interests of the core teamRelevant parties are together to ensure the long-term healthy development of the company; 2) The performance appraisal includes both company performance appraisal and personal performance completion rate appraisal. The appraisal plan is reasonable and effective, and it can fully motivate the target.Combined with the company’s operating conditions, there is not much 苏州夜网论坛 pressure to complete the performance assessment; 3) The cost scale of the grant of the conversion stock is 55.51 million yuan, which is amortized over 36 months after the grant date, and the highest amortization cost in the first year is 36.08 million yuan each year.The impact of amortization expenses on the company’s performance is limited. In the fourth quarter of Q4, the company increased its revenue and deducted non-income growth rates in line with expectations.12 ‰, an increase of 21% in ten years, realizing net profit attributable to mothers1.09 million yuan, an increase of 14% in ten years.The growth rate of revenue and net profit attributable to mothers has improved compared with the growth rate of single quarter revenue in the first three quarters, which is mainly due to the company’s merger and acquisition target consolidation in Q4 2017. The 17Q4 revenue and net profit attributable to mothers are relatively high.The company’s Q4 net profit of non-attributed mothers in the first quarter1.40,000 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 22%, the same growth rate as Q3 single season, in line with expectations.In the future, the expansion of stores in 17-18 will gradually enter the stage of releasing performance, and the endogenous growth rate will increase. The company’s performance is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth. Participated in the establishment of industrial investment funds to help outbound M & A expansion In January 2019, the company announced its intention to participate in the establishment of industrial investment funds.The industrial fund is funded by Shandong New and Old Kinetic Energy, ordinary people’s pharmacy, Guangkong Xingye, and other social capital, with capital contributions of 25%, 20%, 10%, and 45% respectively.This industry fund invests in pharmaceutical retail chain enterprises at a rate of no less than 80%. Through the operation of the industry fund, it will help the company to expand its M & A and expand its performance. Earnings forecast and investment rating will not take into account the 2018 results.We estimate that the company’s operating revenue for 2018-2020 will be 92.4.1 billion, 113.58 ppm and 138.2.6 billion, net profit attributable to mothers is 4 respectively.6.6 billion, 5.7.8 billion and 7.09 million yuan, an annual increase of 25.6%, 24.0% and 22.7%, equivalent to 1, respectively.64 yuan / share, 2.03 yuan / share and 2.49 yuan / share, corresponding P / E is 33.1X, 26.7X and 21.8x, maintain BUY rating. Risk analysis Failure risk of M & A transaction; Failure risk of external investment; Progress of store expansion is expected gradually; Store profitability declines;

Shanghai Airport (600009): Pricing Power Is Innate-Yangtze River Transport Re-Knowing the Airport Series (6)

Shanghai Airport (600009): Pricing Power Is Innate-Yangtze River Transport “Re-Knowing the 佛山桑拿网 Airport” Series (6)

Positive externality: The core asset possesses the basic functions of the dual transportation facilities undertaken by Shanghai Airport, and it is also a window to connect the world to the region and a key amplifier for economic development.

The central government, local finance, and group companies are all committed to providing tangible funds or hidden dividends to Shanghai Airport. The core of this is to improve the competitiveness of Shanghai Airport to surrounding international airports through positive investment and incentives in Shanghai Airport.Multi-dimension gives the growth of traffic.

Financial support for the asset construction of Shanghai Airport is essentially the long-term momentum for investment in regional economic development. This positive externality is a core barrier to its continued access to financial support from the central, local, and group.

High positioning: Passenger acquisition costs can be “passed on to pay”. Airport revenue is derived from passenger traffic, which is essentially a traffic monetization economy. However, unlike industries such as the Internet where traffic is monetized, Shanghai Airports do not have to pay extra costs for traffic.Pricing power is inherent.

Benefiting from the high positioning, Shanghai Airport ‘s traffic has grown steadily, the traffic quality industry is optimal, and the cost of customer acquisition is close to nothing: 1) cherish the long-term value of the hub airport at all times, and compensate for fluctuations in airport traffic; 2) Hongqiao and other surrounding airportsThe domestic travel demand of regional passenger flow guarantees the traffic quality of Shanghai Airport; 3) “Enjoy” the passenger flow transportation between the government and the airline company, and the passenger acquisition cost is close to zero.

As the only international hub of the Yangtze River Delta, the long-term profitability of Shanghai Airport is highly determined.

Strong bargaining: The most generous gains from the copyright of core channels allow the same goods to be obtained at low prices. The duty-free industry is a natural gold track.

As China Travel integrates the domestic tax-exempt industry and the improvement of domestic tax-exempt competition, driving the return of overseas consumption, brands, marketers and channel operators will all transform into the release of huge domestic demand.

The distribution of the benefits of the duty-free industry is designed by the policy ceiling, which is uncertain, but the airport, as the most important channel for tax exemption, is a terminal obstacle to intercepting residents ‘overseas consumption, which is consistent with the government ‘s intention to increase the domestic tax-free share.We believe that the high probability will continue in the future.

From brand owners to marketers to channel vendors, bargaining power has been progressively advanced. The airport is the core of the convergence of policies, traffic and product benefits, and the most rewarding return of the ownership industry chain.

Investment suggestion: Under high certainty, the future market value still doubles. In the past life cycle, Shanghai Airport leads the transportation industry and is a veritable long-distance running champion.

In the future, Shanghai Airport’s high positioning, strong bargaining power still exists, and the long-term winning magic weapon is stable.

With the launch of the Satellite Hall in 2019, Shanghai Airport will usher in a new life cycle. The throughput of flight time is facing the 杭州夜网论坛 release of glass. It is expected that passenger traffic will maintain a high growth rate; while the commercial area has expanded, new tax-free contracts have begun.With the implementation of the upgrade of passenger consumption and the return of overseas consumption, the company’s single-passenger non-airline revenue has increased to full momentum.

We expect Shanghai Airport EPS to reach 6 by 2025.

04 yuan / share, the market value is expected to exceed 290 billion. Under high certainty, the market value doubles compared with the remaining one, and the long-term holding value is significant.

Risk Warning: 1.

Risks of duty-free policies; Downside risks of aviation demand; Duty-free shops in the city intensify competition.

Ren Zeping: Reducing interest rates to interpret preliminary reforms and improve LPR formation mechanism

Ren Zeping: “Reducing interest rates” to interpret preliminary reforms and improve LPR formation mechanism

Here comes the “rate cut”!

-Understanding the source of the gradual reform and perfection of the LPR formation mechanism: Zeping Macro Wenwen University Research Institute Ren Zefang Siyuan Liang Yuan Incident On August 16, the National People’s Congress proposed to reform and improve the pricing mechanism of the loan market price reduction.

On the morning of August 17, the People’s Bank of China announced that on August 20, a new LPR (loan market quoted interest rate) formation mechanism will be released for the first time to promote the reduction of real economy financing costs.

  Interpretation 1, core point: marketization, reform-type interest rate cuts (1) Economic and financial data have all fallen back, and we are forward-looking and clearly put forward “it is time to cut interest rates!

“We are in” It’s time to cut interest rates! ”
!!

“Comprehensive Interpretation of July Economic and Financial Data” proposes that the current economic and financial data has come down in an all-round way and prices have deflated. It is time to cut interest rates.

The downward pressure on the economy has increased, and the tide of global interest rates has been reduced. The 730 Politburo meeting announced that monetary policy has returned to easing, and the exchange rate broke “7”. The core CPI has remained stable.

  In July, the data on social financing, credit, and M2 dropped. The wide-currency to wide-credit policy was less effective, which led to a decline in corporate real yields, narrowing of liquidity distribution channels, and low asset prices. It was difficult to overcome the effects of mortgage loans.

Social finance leading the real economy and investment means that the downward pressure on the economy in the second half to the first half of next year will be cracked.

Troika’s overall profits, sluggish exports, sluggish investment, and consumer spending.

  (II) The reform of the LPR formation mechanism introduced on weekends and weekends is actually a “market-oriented, reform-type rate cut” measure, which guides the reduction of bank loan interest rates, bond interest rates, and corporate real interest rates through open and open market policy interest rates-give more brave reformersSome applause!

  On August 17, a gradual announcement was issued, in order to deepen the interest rate marketization reform, improve the efficiency of interest rate reduction, and promote the reduction of the financing cost of the real economy. It was decided to reform and improve the formation of the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) formation mechanism.

There are four major changes in this reform: 1) The LPR quotation method is changed from the reference benchmark interest rate to the reference open market operation rate, which is based on the medium-term borrowing facility (MLF);Provide reference for the interest rate pricing of long-term loans such as housing mortgage loans; 3) The quotation bank adds city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, foreign exchange banks and private banks in all aspects, and includes 18 from 10 national banks; 4)The frequency of quotations is reduced to once a month.

  After the reform, the LPR interest rate will be formed by 18 banks based on the MLF operating interest rate, based on factors such as the bank’s own capital cost, market supply and demand, and risk premium.

The minimum requirement is that other banks should mainly use the LPR interest rate in newly issued loans, and use the LPR interest rate as the pricing benchmark in floating-rate loan contracts, so as to bring the market interest rate into line with the loan interest rate.

  (3) After the reform of the LPR formation mechanism, the interest rate reduction mechanism in the next few years will be significantly different from the past, and the MLF operation interest rate will be reduced by lowering the benchmark interest rate.

  After the forthcoming reform, future interest rate cuts will be reduced from the official benchmark interest rate in the past, to lowering the open market operation rate to guide bond interest rates, the loan interest rate and the actual interest rate downlink, and gradually approaching the Anglo-American interest rate channel replacement model, and the interest rate efficiency will be significant.Focus on improving.
  The current MLF interest rate has remained at 3 since April 2018.

At the level of 3%, in the context of the overall decline in economic and financial data of developing countries, deflation in prices, and increased downward pressure on the economy in the second half of the year, it is the general trend to reduce MLF operating rates in the future.

  (4) The reform of the reform is to align the loan interest rate with the market interest rate, and to facilitate the replacement of monetary policy.

  The current domestic monetary policy interest rates and channels are not smooth, policy rates, interbank market rates, exchange market rates, loan rates, and non-standard rates are all split. Especially because of the existence of benchmark deposit and loan rates, it is difficult to replace the wide monetary policy toThe interest rate of the real economy financing that is most relevant to the financing of real enterprises.

The LPR mechanism reform introduced at least provides a new market-based pricing benchmark for loan interest rate pricing, and promotes the direct linking of various bank loan interest rates to policy interest rates, in order to promote market-oriented interest rate reform, evacuate interest rate channels, and reduce the financing costs of physical enterprises.It is positive.

  (5) In addition to “expensive financing”, the current problem of “difficult financing” is prominent: liquidity segmentation and discrimination in financing status are important reasons for the current poor financing of physical enterprises, which need to be solved through reforms and marketization.

  At present, the problem of the stratification of liquidity between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises is severe. As a result of the wide monetary policy, the liquidity of private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises is still tight. The proportion and growth rate of loans to private enterprises have declined significantly.And it is expanding.

The reason is to expand the supplement of macro policies. The good intentions of the policies have changed in actual effect, hurting private enterprises and SMEs by mistake. Gradually, frictions and escalations, and our private enterprises are the main foreign exchange earners in China, and exports have the greatest impact.
  At present, the credit resources of private enterprise mergers are completely mismatched with the economic contribution, and the increasing downward pressure on the economy and the policy overlap have further exacerbated discrimination in financing status and the problem of liquidity segmentation.

The “456789” of private enterprises in the national economy, that is, private enterprises have contributed more than 50% of the income with about 40% of bank loans, more than 60% of GDP, more than 70% of technological innovation achievements, and more than 80% of cities and towns.Employment, the number of enterprises above 90%.

The financing prospects of long-term private enterprises have deteriorated, and the proportion and growth rate of loans have declined significantly.

From 2013 to 2016, the proportion of loans to private enterprises increased from 45.

2% continued to drop to 39.

0%; In the second half of 2018, the government strongly supported the financing of private and small and micro enterprises, and the proportion of private enterprise loans rose to 40 again.

7%.

The temporary growth rate of bank loan surplus of small and micro enterprises has been rapidly replaced since September 2017, from 15.

66% dropped to 8.

94%; With strong policy support, loans for small and micro enterprises rose to 9 in half a year in early 2019.

56%.

  (6) In the context of the high risk of credit risks for SMEs, banks may be more cautious about borrowing and prudent loans, exacerbating the difficulty of financing.
  Reasonable loan pricing = capital cost + business cost + reasonable profit + risk premium. It is a composite price based on actual loan business. It aims to guide the change in loan interest rates by changing the LPR formation mechanism, pushing down loan pricing, and actually squeezing the risk premium space.
With the increasing downward pressure on the economy, banks’ problem of rising credit risk for SMEs has increased. Once the risk premium of SME customers corresponding to small and medium banks is insufficient to cover poor coverage, it will gradually increase the substitution that affects bank credit.In order to form a vicious circle of credit contraction and business deterioration.

  (7) In July, the PPI turned negative after a lapse of three years, corporate profits decreased, real interest rates rose, and the balance sheet deteriorated, which may further reduce the bank’s credit placement target. We must be alert to “deflation and deleveraging”.

  We proposed in “China’s Leverage Cycle Study: Theory, Status Quo, and Prospects” that good deleveraging is a mild and deleveraging that keeps the economy growing at a moderate rate, with income growing faster than debt, and effectively enhancing debt repayment capabilities.

It is necessary to prevent the reduction in income growth brought about by deflation and deleveraging, the continued decline in the ability to repay debt, and fall into the cycle of debt deflation.

The current PPI has turned negative in 3 years, corporate real interest rates have risen, earnings have increased, and the balance sheet has deteriorated. Bank lending expectations may be further reduced in the future. We must be alert to the economy’s entry into deflation and deleveraging.

  (8) For this perfect reform of the LPR formation mechanism, a market-oriented reform of interest rate reduction should be affirmed, but at the same time, we must also look at the limitations of its effects and the deep-seated contradictions in the economic and financial fields to prevent thunder and rain., More flowers and less business benefits.

  In the face of complex and severe internal and external indicators, the future reform efforts can be greater, the pace can be faster, and a variety of methods are used to carry out reforms.

Monetary policy should be dominated by me, subject to domestic economic indicators and the overall situation of reform and development. The current economic and financial data have declined comprehensively. In the second half of the year, the economy will take the next step. PPI has turned negative and deflation, and interest rates have been reduced in various overseas regions.

In the future, it is necessary to increase the directional accuracy reduction, supplemented by structural monetary policy tools such as TMLF, MLF, reloan and rediscount, to alleviate corporate financing difficulties and solve the problem of liquidity layering.

At the same time, we will accelerate the reduction of policy rates such as OMO and MLF to guide the decline in loan interest rates, bond interest rates and corporate real interest rates.

Grasp the pace and intensity of deleveraging so that the economy maintains a moderate degree of income growth faster than the rate of debt growth, effectively enhancing the ability to pay debts.

  Continue to increase the lateral structural reform of financial supply, build a multi-level capital market, vigorously develop PE, venture capital, and equity private equity funds to effectively match risks and returns, reduce dependence on bank credit, and support the adoption of high-risk preferences.Venture capital to support new economy financing.

  Promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and establish a new housing-oriented housing system and long-term mechanism.

At present, it is usually necessary to prevent the release of currency to stimulate the real estate bubble, or to prevent major financial risks caused by active piercing. The mature country seeks time for space.

  The most fundamental thing is to expand reform and opening up, liberalize market access, cultivate new economic growth points, restore entrepreneurs’ confidence, and motivate local governments and entrepreneurs.

  Second, this time it is market-oriented and reform-type “rate reduction”: New mechanism (1) LPR’s predecessor, LPR, is the basic interest rate for mortgage loans, which means that financial institutions can choose the highest-quality loan rates implemented by customers, and other loan rates can be based on borrowingThe credit situation of a person is determined by considering the factors such as mortgage, term, interest rate floating method and type, based on the loan base interest rate.

The official LPR only announces the one-year loan base interest rate, which is calculated daily by 10 national commercial banks, and is comprehensively calculated. Since November 2015, it has basically remained at 4.

3% level.

  (II) New LPR mechanism: Pricing is linked to MLF to achieve a “rate cut” in a reformed manner. The new LPR price is determined by each quoting bank based on the average quoted price plus the MLF interest rate.

“Each offer will be made before 09:00 on the 20th of each month (extended on holidays).

The 05 scores are in steps, and the quotations are submitted to the National Interbank Funding Center. The National Interbank Funding Center calculates the average value after removing the highest and lowest quotes to 0.

LPR is calculated by rounding off the nearest multiple of 05%.

“The constant LPR ratio has significant changes in the quotation method, variety duration, reference range, and quotation frequency: 1. The quotation method is formed by changing the reference benchmark interest rate and adding points in accordance with the open market operating interest rate. The open market interest rate mainly refers to MLF.

MLF reflects the average marginal capital cost of a bank. The margin of increase is determined by each bank, mainly the cost of capital, market supply and demand, and risk premium.

The new method of linking MLF with loan interest rates can drive down the interest rate of loans through the downfall of MLF in the future, which is a new way of “rate reduction.”

The overall downward rate of the previous market interest rate has converged. After the LPR formation mechanism is perfected, it will reflect more on the decline in market interest rates, transform, and open channels for policy rates to directly affect loan interest rates, helping to reduce the actual financing cost of enterprises.

  2. Increase the maturity of more than 5 years to provide reference for the interest rate pricing of long-term loans such as bank supplementary housing mortgage loans.

Rich LPR varieties and expanded types are more conducive to guiding the adjustment of loan interest rates of various terms and types, and gradually completing the loan pricing transition to the “LPR + point” mechanism.

  3. The quotation bank has increased the scope of city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, foreign banks and private banks on the basis of national banks.

On the basis of the 10 national banks in the country, two city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, foreign banks and private banks were each added to expand to 18.

  4. The quotation frequency is reduced to once a month to increase the attention of the quotation bank.

Fundamental daily quotes are too verbose, and there may be quoted banks that do not estimate the impact of market changes.

  In addition, each year in the announcement, banks are required to use the loan market quoted interest rate as the basis for pricing in newly issued loans, and use the loan market quoted interest rate as the basis for pricing in floating-rate loan contracts.Market-based pricing guides the market-based pricing of loan interest rates for other commercial banks.

  In the future, there will be equivalent departments, which will comprehensively adopt a variety of measures to effectively reduce the company’s comprehensive financing costs, including 1) increasing credit interest rates and expenses to be open and transparent, 2) strengthening positive incentives and assessments, and strengtheningCredit support from credit companies, 3) Strengthen multi-department communication and coordination, form a policy synergy, and take multiple measures to promote the reduction of corporate financing related inputs and other channel costs.

  (3) The MLF interest rate may be reduced from April 17, 2018 to the convenience of borrowing during the transition period. After raising the MLF operation rate by 5bp, the current MLF operation rate remains at 3.

3% level.

In the end, the main objective of the LPR formation mechanism is to increase the marketization of LPR, play a good role of LPR in guiding the lending rate, promote the reduction of the “two tracks in one track” of interest rates, increase the productivity of interest rates, and reduce the financing cost of the real economy.

From this perspective, it is necessary to pay attention to the latest LPR announcement level and increase range in the short term. In the long term, the current economic and financial data has fallen comprehensively, core CPI has stabilized, PPI has turned negative and deflation, and the Fed and other overseas countries have cut interest rates widely.The MLF operating rate is the general trend.
  (4) Future interest rate cuts will be significantly different from the past. After the first reform of interest rate efficiency, future interest rate cuts will decrease from the official benchmark interest rate in the past, to guide the actual interest rate downward through open market operation rates, and gradually approach the US interest rate channel.Nominal mode.
The Federal Reserve ‘s monetary policy operation targets the federal funds rate as an incremental target, and through open market operations, it moves closer to the federal funds target rate through the interbank deposit rate.
The US deposit interest rate is directly anchored to the federal funds rate. In terms of loan interest rates, about 20% of loans in large banks use LPR pricing. Nearly 60% of small and medium-sized banks use LPR. Others use LIBOR and federal fund rates.Highly related to the federal funds rate can form a direct replacement for deposit and loan rates.

  Based on US experience, the productivity of the constant interest rate channel will be higher.

Under the compensation mechanism based on the federal funds rate in the United States, the correlation of various ratios is replaced. In its monetary policy replacement, interest rates can effectively replace short-term, medium- and long-term interest rates as intermediate targets.

99, the correlation for rising long-term interest rates is as high as 0.

86. Effectively reduce the financing cost of the real economy.

  Third, the current average budget interest rate channel is split, and the interest rates of each part are fragmented. It is difficult to replace market interest rates with the loan interest rate indicator channels that are most relevant to real economy financing. There are roughly three types of exchange rate changes within the scope of exchange rate changes.Affecting the money market interest rate and thus the financing cost of the bond market; 2) After the money market interest rate is reduced, the cost of absorbing resistance of the banking financial institutions in the money market is reduced, which affects the debt-side interest rate. On the basis of guaranteeing the interest margin, the loan interest rateAdjustments occurred; 3) Loose monetary policy, supplemented by loose financial supervision and financial product innovation, together affected non-standard financing costs.

With DR007 and R007 as potential policy target interest rates, we can find that the nominal interbank market, bond market, loans and non-standard market interest rate yields have significant wear and tear.

Except for the policy interest rate, it is more efficient for the inter-bank market income, and for the exchange market, loans and non-standard conversion efficiency are gradually decreasing.

  At present, interest rate loans account for 68% of the social financing stock, so the exchange rate efficiency of interest rates in the credit market is the most important factor in determining the channel for adjusting interest rates in monetary policy.

Under the broad monetary policy of the United Nations, the decline in the loan interest rate is much smaller than the money market interest rate, so the three-month Shibor quarterly ceiling has been raised from the March 2018 high of 4.

7% interest rate 2.

9%, but the general loan interest rate has a limited decline. At the end of June 2019, it was even increased by 3bp to 5 compared with the end of 2018.

94%.

  Investigate the reasons: (1) The policy rate reduces the wear and tear on the bond market interest rate, mainly due to the artificial division of the exchange market and the interbank market. Due to the mutual supervision and entry barriers that can be different, the capital risk is higher in the exchange market than in banks.In the actual market, the exchange market interest rate level and the rate of change are significantly higher than the interbank market in actual operation, which causes wear and tear on the interest rate conversion rate.

In addition, the long-term bond market still has problems such as insufficient liquidity, financial derivative product substitution, etc., which weakens the conversion efficiency.

  (2) The policy interest rate wants to reduce the loan interest rate, mainly because there are two major silting points in the process. The first is the reduction of the deposit interest rate, which causes the reduction of the money market interest rate and the deposit market interest rate to be blocked. This is highly related to the residents’ strong saving habits.Relatedly, deposits are more stable funds for banks, so whether from the regulatory 淡水桑拿网 indicators or the bank’s own assessments, they can complement deposits. Therefore, the realization of a non-arbitrary equilibrium between deposit interest rates and money market rates requires a long process;Two-sector decision-making mechanism “, where market interest rates and benchmark interest rates co-exist, loan pricing is highly dependent on benchmark interest rates, money market interest rates, and credit market interest rates are split, and the bank’s internal fund transfer pricing system is not yet complete, and it is not possible to achieve changes in interest rates on the debt endEffective response.

The impact of the compression of the benchmark interest rate and deposits deposited in the loan market on the bank’s asset-liability end to changes in the market interest rate is not significant, and the slenderness 杭州夜网论坛 of the bank’s liability-end cost to the asset-end interest rate is compensated.

  Fourth, the reform of the LPR formation mechanism promotes the alignment of the loan interest rate with the open market operation interest rate, unblocks the conversion of the policy interest rate to the loan interest rate, and achieves the wide-currency to wide-credit interest rate issuance. The LPR reform is an enhanced monetary policy operation tool by increasing interest rates.The speed of application, unblocking the channel of interest rate subsidies, has multiple substantive effects: 1) Avoid excessive monetary policy easing signals caused by interest rate cuts, which is consistent with the principle of preventing flooding, and at the same time open up the downward space for loan interest rates.

  2) Expand the bargaining power of enterprises with new “anchor” pricing.

Under traditional credit pricing habits, the benchmark interest rate is the “anchor” for banks to bargain with customers. Under the new “anchor”, when there is insufficient credit demand, it will inevitably expand the bargaining power of enterprises and further improve physical financing.

  3) In the long run, it is an important step in the marketization of interest rates.

The current rate of return still follows the benchmark interest rate pricing, and once the account deposit interest rate is liberalized, it may hinder the stability of the liability end of commercial banks. From the international experience, the liberalization of deposit interest rates requires a gradual process.It’s not easy overnight.

In this context, it is the first to promote the marketization of loan interest rates, which can effectively form a pricing method to connect with the bank’s marginal debt cost, make adjustments more flexible, increase bank initiative, and promote the simultaneous linkage of physical financing costs and capital costs.Go to Kuan Credit again.

International experience shows that LPR is usually a transitional system for loan interest rates from official supervision to full marketization. In the quarterly “Monetary Policy Implementation Report”, the United States, Japan, India and other countries have established similar LPR quotation mechanisms.

  V. In addition to the expensive financing problem, the current difficult financing problem is prominent: the liquidity classification of physical enterprises, the discrimination of financing status is an important reason for the inaccessibility of liquidity, and the liquidity stratification has led to the wide monetary policy.Tension.
The financing prospects of long-term private enterprises have deteriorated, and the proportion and growth rate of loans have declined significantly.

From 2013 to 2016, the proportion of loans to private enterprises increased from 45.

2% continued to drop to 39.

0%; In the second half of 2018, the government strongly supported the financing of private and small and micro enterprises, and the proportion of private enterprise loans rose to 40 again.

7%.

The temporary growth rate of bank loan surplus of small and micro enterprises has been rapidly replaced since September 2017, from 15.

66% dropped to 8.

94%; With strong policy support, loans for small and micro enterprises rose to 9 in half a year in early 2019.

56% of discrimination in financing status has intensified, and the credit spread of private enterprises far exceeds that of central and local state-owned enterprises, and the disparity in disparity is increasing.

At present, the credit spread of private enterprises issuing bonds is as high as 3.

The three averages are significantly higher than 0 for central and local SOEs.

5 and 1.

0 averages.

Especially since the financial deleveraging in the fourth quarter of 2016, overall financing is expected to tighten, with private companies bearing the brunt of it, and credit spreads rising by up to 2%.
2 digits, while central and local SOEs rose by only 1.
3 and 1.

6 averages.

  The current problem of the liquidity stratification of small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises is mainly due to two reasons: First, due to the overlap and resonance of macroeconomic policies, the operating pressures of private and SMEs have been exacerbated.

The original intentions of the policies are all good, and the general direction is also correct. However, due to implementation deviations or inadequate considerations, some policy effects have changed, including: 1) Shutdown of production capacity and a large number of private SMEs shut down and transfer, and profitsInterest rates; 2) Environmental protection and limited production and rising operating costs of private enterprises; 3) Financial deleveraging and the deterioration of the financing environment for private enterprises; 4) Competition for social security strengthened collection and the actual tax burden of private enterprises has increased.

  The second is the friction upgrade impacting export enterprises.

Since March 2018, friction has continued to escalate, and it has been included in the 2018 global economic cycle. With weak external demand, China’s export growth rate has been rapidly replaced.

Private enterprises are the main force in China’s export earning foreign exchange, and exports are expected to have the greatest impact.

  The credit resources incorporated by private enterprises currently do not match the economic contribution.

The “456789” of private enterprises in the national economy, that is, private enterprises have contributed more than 50% of the income with about 40% of bank loans, more than 60% of GDP, more than 70% of technological innovation achievements, and more than 80% of urban laborEmployment, the number of companies above 90%.

At the same time, Baoshang Bank was taken over and broke the banking industry’s recent cash flow, leading to a reduction in market risk and a breakdown of the liquidity of the banking system. Small and medium-sized banks contracted. In June 2019, the growth rate of total assets of city commercial banks and rural commercial banks improved.Sexual release channels have been substantially narrowed, gradually increasing the current internal liquidity stratification problem.

  6. Under the background of high credit risk for SMEs, banks may further exacerbate the issue of prudent loans and exacerbate the problem of “financing difficulties.” Lowering interest rates to market interest rates will make it difficult to change the status of SME credit risks.

Since 2018, the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks, especially small and medium-sized commercial banks, has continued to rise. At present, the credit risk of small and medium-sized customers of small and medium-sized banks continues, and there is little collateral. It is difficult for banks to form effective demand for risk-reward matching.Commercial banks ‘prudent lending sentiment has not been effectively alleviated, and banks’ lending intentions are not strong.

From the data point of view, the current loan structure has continued to deteriorate, the proportion of long-term loans has declined, the proportion of short-term loans has increased, the proportion of corporate loans has fallen, the proportion of residential loans has increased slightly, and the proportion of non-bank loans has increased.

  Reasonable loan pricing = capital cost + business cost + reasonable profit + risk premium. It is a composite price based on the loan business. The reform is based on the change of the LPR formation mechanism to guide the change in loan interest rates, promote the downward adjustment of loan pricing, and actually squeeze the risk premium space.
With the increasing downward pressure on the economy, banks’ problem of rising credit risk for SMEs has increased. Once the risk premium of SME customers corresponding to small and medium banks is not sufficient to cover poor coverage, it will gradually increase the impact of bank credit priority.Loans, thereby forming a vicious circle of credit contraction and business deterioration.

  7. The PPI turned negative after three years, the real interest rate rose, and the industrial company’s balance sheet deteriorated, further reducing bank borrowing intentions. It is necessary to prevent deflation and deleveraging. The PPI turned negative for the first time in three months in 7 months. Stepping into deflation, corporate profitsDecrease, real interest rates rise, commodity prices have fallen, reflecting weak economic demand, worsening balance sheets, and reducing corporate borrowing capacity.

July PPI is -0 per year.

3%, -0.

2%.

Among them, affected by the decline in international crude oil prices, the prices of oil and gas extraction and the petroleum processing industry dropped significantly in July.

We have pointed out in “China’s Leverage Cycle Study: Theory, Status Quo and Prospects” that good deleveraging is a modest and deleveraging that keeps the economy growing at a moderate rate, and that the rate of income growth is greater than the rate of debt growth, effectively enhancing debt repayment capabilities.Deflation and deleveraging, spiraling declines in price levels have caused debtors’ income to continue to decrease, and their ability to repay debts has continued to weaken. It is also necessary to avoid vicious conflict deleveraging, that is, the increase in debtor’s nominal income is essentially a transfer of wealth and a debt default, not a real debt.The actual solvency has improved.

  The current PPI turns negative after a lapse of 3 years, corporate profits increase, and real interest rates rise, resulting in a worsening of the balance sheet, and bank borrowing expectations may be further reduced in the future.

The loan interest rate still depends on corporate credit risk and actual profitability. Once corporate profits accelerate and the real estate market accelerates downward, the economy may enter a deflationary deleveraging channel.

There is a current need for high vigilance on deflation and deleveraging.

  8. Policy Suggestions This reform and perfect LPR formation mechanism is market-oriented, reform-type interest rate reduction, and the reform method is worth encouraging. It is also a step-by-step step to promote the market-oriented rate of return.

However, the current real economy financing still faces multiple difficulties in financing, the credit risk of SMEs still exists, the liquidity issuance channels have substantially narrowed, the liquidity has been subdivided, and the economy has entered deflation. The economic and financial data fell in July in a comprehensive manner, and the economy in the second half of the yearWe will take the next step. Against this background, future reforms can be a little bit more intensive, the steps can be reversed, and a variety of methods can be used to advance reforms into the deep-water area.

  Monetary policy should be dominated by me, subject to domestic economic indicators and the overall situation of reform and development. The current economic and financial data have declined comprehensively. In the second half of the year, the economy will take the next step. PPI has turned negative and deflation, and interest rates have been reduced in various overseas regions.

Grasp the pace and intensity of deleveraging so that the economy maintains a moderate degree of income growth faster than the rate of debt growth, effectively enhancing the ability to pay debts.

Intensify targeted reductions, supplemented by structural monetary policy tools such as TMLF, MLF, re-loan and rediscount to alleviate corporate financing difficulties and solve layered breakthroughs in liquidity.

Speed up the reduction of OMO, MLF and other policy interest rates, and guide the decline in loan interest rates, bond interest rates and corporate real interest rates.

Continue to promote the in-depth development of interest rate marketization, improve the FTP pricing mechanism of financial institutions, and explore the marketization of deposit interest rates.

Grasp the pace and intensity of deleveraging so that the economy maintains a moderate degree of income growth faster than the rate of debt growth, effectively enhancing the ability to pay debts.

  We will intensify structural reforms on the financial supply side, and continue to open up credit channels from wide currency to wide credit, interest rate channels, asset price channels, and expected channels.

(1) Credit channel: Match the financial structure and economic structure, and establish a multi-level, wide-coverage, and differentiated banking system and credit market system; (2) Interest rate channel: Improve the role of LPR in guiding market interest rates and reduce the financing of physical enterprisesReal interest rate, giving play to the linkage effect of interest rate channels and credit channels; (3) Asset price channels: building a multi-level capital market, realizing effective matching of risks and returns, reducing dependence on bank credit, and supporting venture capital through high-risk appetiteSupport new economic financing; (4) Expected channels: continue to expand and actively communicate with the market, strengthen trust, and strengthen the role of active guidance in monetary policy intervention.

  Promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and establish a new housing-oriented housing system and long-term mechanism.
At present, it is usually necessary to prevent the release of currency to stimulate the real estate bubble, or to prevent major financial risks caused by active piercing, and exchange time for space.

Stabilize land prices, stabilize house prices, stabilize expectations, and use the time window to promote housing system reform and long-term mechanisms.

The long-term mechanism is a major reform of the theoretical and substantive principles. It is a result-oriented policy design. There are four main aspects: First, the responsibility of the city’s main body is replaced by the central government of each country, and the local government has the autonomy of scale.Right, starting from the actual situation in various places, in the additional policy toolbox, you can choose the appropriate combination of alternative policies independently, adapt to local conditions, and implement precise policies.

The second is to give local financial, fiscal, tax, land and other policy toolboxes to the central government for assessment and supervision.
The targets reported by the local authorities to the central government at the beginning of each year are subject to monthly monitoring, quarterly assessment and annual assessment.
Commercial housing prices, second-hand housing prices, rents, and land price indexes are trying to keep pace with the CPI.

The third is the market system and guarantee system for housing construction.

To solve the problem of residential housing, we should insist on “low income depends on security, middle income depends on support, and high income depends on the market.”

The fourth is to speed up the real estate tax legislation. The real estate tax is a strategy to cope with land finances from the root cause, and land prices to increase housing prices.

The real estate budget shifts from administrative measures to comprehensive measures, including a package of policy tools such as finance, land, finance and taxation, housing security, and market management.

  The most fundamental thing is to expand reform and opening up, liberalize market access, restore entrepreneurs ‘confidence, stimulate new economic growth points such as the new economy and the service industry, reduce the scale of enterprises and residents’ taxes and fees; implement social security accounts and improve the level of social security for residentsResidents can spend with peace of mind; liberalize industry regulations for automobiles, finance, telecommunications, medical care, etc .; partially purchase corporate debts with equity pledge risks; and take out some good assets for mixed reform.

Mobilize the enthusiasm of local governments and entrepreneurs, choose to incentivize local governments with gradual development assessment, establish a multi-level capital market, and improve SME financing.

Now we need to give local officials new incentives and give private entrepreneurs peace of mind.

Wuliangye (000858) 2018 Annual Report Review: 2018’s Beautiful Performance Ends in 19Q1 Attempts to Usher in a “Bright Start”

Wuliangye (000858) 2018 Annual Report Review: 2018’s Beautiful Performance Ends in 19Q1 Attempts to Usher in a “Bright Start”

Opinion report / An event overview of the food and beverage industry The company released its 2018 annual report on March 27. The actual realized operating income / net profit attributable to the mother were 40 / 13.4 billion US dollars, up to +32.

6% / + 38.

4%; basic EPS3.

47 yuan; a cash dividend of 17 yuan is planned for every 10 shares.

  Second, analyze and judge that the sales of liquor in 2018 exceeded 19 years, and the growth rate of production and sales of high-priced wines was faster than the overall 2018.The company achieved revenue of 40 billion US dollars, and the high-priced wines / low-priced wines had a revenue of 302 / US $ 7.6 billion, up from +41% / + 13%, with high-priced wines performing well; 19 replacements for liquor sales, + 6% per year.

Q4’s net income from revenue / attribution was US $ 100.8 / 3.9 billion, +31% / + 44% per year; revenue growth rate 青岛夜网 basically matched this, and profit growth rate was slightly higher than the above.

In general, Q4’s performance was slightly better than the first three quarters, and its performance fell at the center of the previous forecast period.

  Insist on brand slimming, focus on “1 + 3”, “4 + 4” product system Since 2018, the company has proposed a brand slimming plan, cleaning up the total distribution products that are harmful to the Wuliangye brand, and gradually solving the industry of total distribution products and self-operated large single products.Competition issues.

It is expected that in the future, the company will strengthen the construction of large brands and concentrate its resources on building a “1 + 3” and “4 + 4” core product system.

  The 7th generation of the 5th Spring Festival is ideal for dehydration, and the price of the 8th generation of the 5th Spring Festival is optimistic. It is estimated that the shipment volume of the Wuliangye series products (including 1618, delivery cups, low, etc.) for the Spring Festival this year will be about 8,000 tons, + 15-20% each time.Shipments are better than market expectations, and the company is expected to usher in a good start.

In June of this year, the eighth-generation Puwu will be fully listed.

Considering that the degeneration of the seventh-generation Puwu inventory is ideal during the Spring Festival, it is expected that the ex-factory price of the eight-generation Puwu will be set at a high probability of 889 yuan, according to the current distribution ratio (56% of the seventh generation, 9% of the commemorative edition, and 35% of the eighth generation).The annual cost is around 830 yuan, and it is expected that the approval price will rise to more than 850 yuan in the second half of the year.

We believe that 1618 and low-grade Wuliangye are expected to become the core driving force for the growth of high-end sales in the second half of the year, and the 8th generation of the plan is only 5250 tons during the year. Therefore, its core task is to continue to maintain prices to repair dealer profit margins.

  Third, profit forecasting and investment recommendations It is estimated that the company will achieve an operating income of 500/590 / 69.1 billion US dollars in 19-21 years, + 25% / + 18% / + 17% per year; and a net profit of 17/202 / 23.8 billion US dollars attributable to mothers.The annual +27% / + 19% / + 18% corresponds to an EPS of 4.

38/5.

20/6.

13 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 20/17/14 times.

At present, the overall liquor industry is estimated to be 29 times, and the company is estimated to exceed the overall level of the industry, giving a “recommended” rating.

  Fourth, risk warning: economic growth drags down demand, approval prices are lower than expected, food safety issues, etc.

Weihai Guangtai (002111) Company Dynamic Comment: Double-main business steadily grows military industry business momentum

Weihai Guangtai (002111) Company Dynamic 西安桑拿论坛 Comment: Double-main business steadily grows military industry business momentum

Event: The company recently issued a performance forecast, and it is expected to realize net profit attributable to its mother in 2019 of 31,700.

370,000 to 35,222.

640,000 yuan, 23481 compared with the same period last year.

76 is expected to grow 35% to 50% per month.

The net profit attributable to the headquarters of the company achieved high growth: revenues were achieved in the first quarter to the third quarter of 20193.

51/6.

16/7.

6.3 billion, previous change -8.

74% / 0.

28% / 43.

31%; net profit attributable to mother is 0.

59/0.

55/1.

56 ppm, fluctuating 15 years.

02% /-26.

91% / 196.

24% in the third quarter achieved rapid growth.

According to the company’s 2019 annual performance forecast, it is expected that net profit attributable to mothers will be 31,700 in 2019.

370,000 to 35,222.

640,000 yuan, previously expected to increase 35% to 50%, high annual profit growth.

The company has formed a “dual main business and one military industry” model, and the development of military products is rapid: the company’s military products in 2019 have made breakthrough progress and gradually transformed into military equipment contracts or won the bid for military products procurement amount of 12.

93 trillion, accounting for 59 of the preliminary total revenue in 2018.

12%, 4 of the military revenue in 2018.

4 times.

In 2020, the company renewed military special equipment contracts in one month, totaling 10.395 million, accounting for 4% of the company’s audited operating income in 2018.
.

75%, accounting for 35% of military revenue.

61%, the implementation of the contract will have a positive impact on the company’s operating results in 2020.

The company is committed to the development and manufacture of military drones, and its target products have significant advantages, benefiting from the new military training program on the demand side and the provision of technological breakthroughs to reduce costs and further enhance the policy dividends such as military-civilian integration, and require a stable national defense budgetThe market demand for military drones is expected to reach US $ 41.3 billion in the next five years. The company is trying to enjoy the dividends and its business development can be expected.

Fire and emergency business + airport business dual-main business steadily develops: In terms of fire and emergency business, internal fire station construction is still divided. In the future, fire station repair shortboards will drive the fire truck market. It is expected that the total demand of the fire truck market in the next five years will reach approximately56 billion yuan.

In terms of competitiveness with its peers, the company’s outstanding achievements in the field of mid-to-high-end products have caused the company’s gross profit margin to far exceed that of its peers’ revenue to quickly catch up to the height of the fire-fighting vehicle industry. This business is expected to increase steadily in the future.

In addition, after October 2018, the fire brigade was officially transferred to the emergency management department. The fire brigade’s police scene is more accurate. The company’s fire fighting equipment has also shifted to emergency equipment. The application scene has been expanded. Health checkup medical vehicles and ophthalmic diagnosis and treatment vehicles have been launched.Overall, it is a DR medical examination vehicle, etc. The company’s fever inspection vehicle, detention observation vehicle and other emergency equipment can be used in conjunction with medical staff to carry out diagnosis and treatment in emergencies. Future application scenarios are further expanded to open up new markets.

In terms of airport business, after the short-term airport construction has been accelerated, the annual number of transport airports will reach 260/370 in 2020/2025 and a CAGR of 6 in 2018-2025.

7%, compared to CAGR3 in 2014-2018.

86% has an increase in the refractive index; there are 399 airports in 2018 on general aviation, according to the plan, it will reach 500/2058 in 2020/2030, and the CAGR is expected to be 14 in 2018-2030.

65%.

The rapid expansion tolerance of civil aviation is expected to bring an average annual market space of more than 5 billion to the airport equipment industry in 2019-2021.

The company, as a leader in the localization of private airport ground equipment, has a variety of advantages, research and development advantages, preemptive deployment of oil-to-electricity advantages, and excellent cost control compared to previous domestic and foreign counterparts. The four advantages have made a significant contribution to the competitive industries.Leading, the future performance of the airport business will 深圳桑拿网 continue to benefit from the acceleration of airport construction and import substitution.
Investment suggestion: Considering that the company’s dual main businesses are steadily making great strides towards the military industry business, we estimate that the net profit attributable to mothers will be 3 in 2019-2021.
3.7 billion, 4.

3.3 billion, 5.

3.6 billion, EPS is 0.

88 yuan, 1.

13 yuan, 1.

40 yuan, corresponding to PE is 18 times, 14 times, 11 times.

Risk reminder: macroeconomic risks, increased competition in the industry, related demand of the civil aviation industry may be affected by other transportation modes, risks of international market development, and predicted parameters are less than expected risks

Longji shares (601012) company comment: The overseas component business with excellent performance is in line with expectations

Longji shares (601012) company comment: The overseas component business with excellent performance is in line with expectations
Event: The company announced its 2019 Interim Report and achieved revenue of 141.11 trillion, the same increase of 41.09%; net profit attributable to mother 20.100,000 yuan, an increase of 53.76%; net profit attributable to non-homing mothers 19.9.6 billion, an increase of 59.15%; EPS 0.57 yuan, ROE 9.14%.Among them, 2Q19 武汉夜生活网 achieved revenue of 84.01 billion, an increase of 28.62%; net profit attributable to mother 13.9.6 billion, an increase of 83.07%; net profit deducted from non-mothers 14.00 trillion, with an increase of 87.11%; EPS 0.39 yuan, ROE 7.17%, performance in line with expectations.At the same time, it is planned to invest 45.The US $ 8.6 billion construction of Yinchuan’s 15GW single-crystal silicon wafer project, with a planned investment of 17.90 trillion US dollars to build a 5GW monocrystalline module project in Taizhou. Profitability rebounded and cash flow improved.1H19’s gross profit and net profit were 26.22% / 15.11%, an increase of 3 each year.60/2.08 PCT.In the second quarter of 19, gross profit and net profit were 28.05% / 17.40%, an increase of 5 each year.05/5.63 PCT, an increase of 4 from the previous month.51/5.66%.1H19 company operating net cash flow24.27 trillion, with an increase of 107.63%, the first is the increase in sales receipts. The export of silicon wafers also increased by 183%, and the sales of overseas components accounted for 76%.1H19 company realized monocrystalline silicon wafer sales21.4.8 billion tablets, an increase of 183% in ten years, for personal use7.9.5 billion pieces; realized external sales of monocrystalline modules of 3,193MW, an increase of 21% over 265MW for self-use; realized external sales of monocrystalline cells of 712MW.In terms of overseas business, 1H19’s overseas sales of monocrystalline modules reached 2,423MW, a year-on-year increase of 252%, accounting for 76% of the external sales of monocrystalline modules, accounting for an increase of 43PCT compared to 2018. Monocrystalline silicon wafers completed their capacity planning goals one year in advance, and non-silicon costs also fell by 31.75%.The company’s “Product Capacity Planning for the Next Three Years (2019-2021)” states that by the end of 2021, the capacity of monocrystalline silicon rods / wafers, monocrystalline cells, and monocrystalline modules will reach 65GW, 20GW, and 30GW respectively.In order to ensure the market demand for high-efficiency monocrystalline products, the company accelerated the expansion of production capacity. The silicon wafer capacity is expected to reach 65GW by the end of 2020 according to the current construction progress, which is 1 year earlier than the original planned time.In addition, the company further reduced the non-silicon cost of the product through equipment transformation, process improvement, and management enhancement. The non-silicon cost of silicon wafers decreased from January to June 2019.75%. Investment suggestion: Net profit is expected to reach 49-2019 respectively.03, 59.62 and 70.3.9 billion, an annual increase of 91.69%, 21.60%, 18.06%, the current sustainable corresponding three-year PE is 21, 17, 14 times respectively, maintaining the “Buy” rating. Risk reminders: international trade protection risks, management risks brought by the accelerated expansion of business scale, and macroeconomic fluctuation risks.